Bitcoin, H4 - 83594.17 - RSI 47.79
What I see at first glance: Impulse -> Exhaustion -> Compression. This is not a trending Bitcoin anymore, it is a coiling market right under a double top. The story in 3 acts: 1. Impulse (17 Sep - 22 Sep): We started at 75538. Price was above all MAs, yellow above blue above red, textbook uptrend. On 18 Sep 16:00 we had top fractals at 81300 and 81500 with a small pullback to 79900 bottom fractal. Then 20 Sep to 22 Sep was pure FOMO. Long green H4 candles from 80500 to 87213.90 top fractal on 22 Sep 08:00. Volume was the highest of the whole chart in that leg. RSI pushed to 86 overbought on 22 Sep, extreme euphoria. 2. Distribution (22 Sep - 26 Sep): Top at 87213.90 failed. Price made a second high at 86900 on 22 Sep 20:00 with top fractal, then a sharp red candle down to 83200 bottom fractal. That was the first lower high. From 23 Sep 00:00 to 26 Sep 00:00 price started chopping sideways between 82500 and 84800. Notice the pattern of top fractals at 85000, 85800, 84200, 84400 - sellers stepping in each time at lower levels. Bottom fractals at 83000, 82800, 83200 holding for now. Yellow MA flattened at 84300 and started turning down, blue kept rising to 83500 and yellow crossed below blue on 27 Sep - first bearish cross in 10 days. Red MA far below at 79500 still rising, so big trend still up, but medium trend breaking. 3. Compression (27 Sep - 30 Sep): This is where we are now. Price is stuck in a tight 82543 - 83849 range. Three bottom fractals at 82500, 82600, 82800 on 28-29 Sep show buyers defending 82500. Three top fractals at 84500, 84300, 84600 show sellers capping 84500. Volume dropped to lowest since 17 Sep, typical before a breakout. RSI at 47.79 neutral, recovered from 32 oversold on 28 Sep to 52, now fading, showing indecision. My read on levels: The green horizontal line at 83594.17 is the pivot. Price is right now chopping around yellow 83616 and blue 83849. If bulls want continuation, they must close H4 above 84878 with volume, then retest 87213 top. If bears take control, a H4 close below 82543 bottom fractals opens a deeper correction toward blue-red gap, first 81500 then 79500 red MA. Currently neutral with bearish lean as long as below 83849 blue resistance.
