FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I am looking at the EUR/USD charts right now. The market is very active as we head into a major Federal Reserve decision. I see the pair trading near 1.1996, maintaining a strong bullish stance after a breakout earlier this week. Buyers are defending the 1.2000 level with significant conviction. The price action feels incredibly strong to me, and I am tracking every tick to find the best entry before the volatility spike. It looks like the Euro is ready to challenge historic resistance levels as the dollar faces broad selling pressure. The global economy is currently navigating a period of intense transformation in early 2026, which has turned the EUR/USD into the primary focus for currency traders worldwide as the pair transitions from a period of consolidation into a full-scale bullish rally. I notice that the United States is facing a unique challenge where the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates on hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent today, January 28, 2026, while markets look for any signal of hawkish fatigue. This structural change is why the Euro has stayed so high, gaining roughly 13 percent over the past year. I am also seeing a wave of dollar risk premium being priced out as rumors of joint FX interventions in other pairs, like USD/JPY, indirectly weaken the greenback across the board. I believe this fundamental shift is the most important factor to watch, especially with the European Central Bank maintaining a more competitive rate stance compared to previous years. I am keeping a very close watch on the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product data and the FOMC statement, as these catalysts will drive the volatility needed for the next major leg. I have analyzed the recent H4 candlestick patterns to get a clearer picture of the immediate trend, observing that the price recently shattered the 1.1900 psychological barrier before entering a high-velocity climb. I am currently watching a Bullish Continuation pattern that formed on the H4 chart after a brief re-test of 1.1875, which tells me that selling pressure is completely exhausted. I also identified a high-volume node near 1.2015, which explains the current slight hesitation and shows a localized supply of Euros at that level. My strategy involves watching for a strong Bullish Engulfing candle to close above 1.2020 on the H4 chart as a signal that the move toward 1.2100 has truly begun.

The technical architecture of the EUR/USD market remains firmly bullish as I see the price trading well above the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages on the H4 timeframe, but I am now refining my entry using the M15 chart for maximum precision. I observe that on the M15 timeframe, the pair has stabilized around 1.1996, forming a tight consolidation pattern just above the 1.1990 area. I have applied the Fibonacci retracement tool on the M15 chart from the recent session low of 1.1875 to the local peak of 1.2042 to pinpoint high-probability reaction zones. My refined entry point is now set at 1.1978, which perfectly aligns with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level and a recent M15 liquidity gap. For this high-frequency setup, I am watching the MACD on the M15 chart for a bullish crossover above the zero line, which would signal that the current micro-correction after the 1.2042 peak is over. I have placed my primary stop-loss at 1.1940 to stay clear of the psychological 1.1950 level and any sudden pre-Fed liquidity sweeps. My first intraday exit is the recent high at 1.2040, while the 161.8 percent Fibonacci extension on the M15 chart provides a target at 1.2145 for those holding for the long run. I am seeing increasing volume on the M15 bullish candles as we approach the New York open, suggesting that institutional players are positioning for a dovish Fed surprise. This M15 structure provides a much tighter risk-to-reward ratio than the higher timeframes, allowing me to scale into the position as momentum confirms. I will remain disciplined, watching for a 15-minute bullish pin bar at the 1.1978 level to trigger my buy orders. The combination of this micro-level precision and the broader H4 bullish trend creates a powerful synergy for today’s trading session. I am fully prepared to capitalize on this breakout as the market attempts to set a fresh multi-year high before the day ends. By using the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level at 1.1938 as a safety net for entry, I am ensuring my strategy accounts for a deeper dip should the Fed statement be unexpectedly hawkish. I am also monitoring the 14-day RSI, which is currently near 68, suggesting we are close to overbought territory but still have room for one final push.