As long as EUR/JPY remains stuck below the 100-day moving average, upside potential is likely to be corrective and risks renewed selling pressure. The 100-day moving average (MA) now has the potential to transform into dynamic resistance. If the price attempts to rise and is rejected again in the 100-day moving average (MA), downward pressure is likely to continue, with a target of returning to the 200-day moving average (MA) or even slightly below. Conversely, if the price manages to break through and maintain above the 100-day moving average (MA) with a valid H4 candle, this could signal an early recovery in bullish momentum toward the nearest resistance level in the 184.70-185.50 range. During the previous upward phase, the price reached a relatively high high, approaching the resistance area in the 186.80–187.00 range. This area is seen as a fairly strong supply zone, triggering significant selling pressure. Rejection from this level produces a long-bodied bearish candle, indicating distribution and profit-taking by market participants.
Following the rejection, the price experienced a sharp decline, breaking through the 100-day moving average (MA), even briefly approaching the 200-day moving average (MA). This reaction indicates that bullish momentum is weakening and the market is entering a consolidation or correction phase. The 100-day moving average (MA), which previously served as dynamic support, is now seen flattening, even declining slightly. This indicates that buying pressure is no longer as strong as before. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) maintains a relatively stable upward slope, indicating that the underlying trend structure has not completely changed. As long as the price remains above or around the 200-day moving average (MA), the opportunity for a continuation of the medium-term uptrend remains open, albeit with higher volatility. Recent price movements indicate an attempted rebound after touching the support area around 182.00–182.20. This area is close to the 200-day moving average (MA), so a technical buying reaction is understandable. However, the rebound has not yet demonstrated a strong impulse. Price movement remains relatively limited and tends to move sideways below the 100-day moving average (MA). This reflects market uncertainty, with buyers and sellers still testing each other's strength.
