FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

The price of gold (XAU) dropped on Thursday, reaching its lowest point in more than two weeks. As tensions escalated in the Middle East and concerns about supply interruption grew, the price of oil surged. Increased inflation could be a result of rising oil prices. As U.S. inflation rises, the Fed may maintain higher interest rates, which would keep pressure on gold and silver prices near their crucial support levels. Both the US currency and US Treasury yields are still robust. The most recent data on inflation was milder. However, the likelihood of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve in September, rising energy costs, and projections of increasing energy inflation raise the likelihood of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve in September. rising energy costs and projections of rising energy inflation. Given that energy costs are still high, the Fed might be less inclined to adopt a more dovish stance in light of the inflation figures. Spot gold prices are still under pressure, according to the daily chart. Prices are still moving in the direction of the $3,850 support area after breaking below the $4,000 mark. The lower edge of the wedge pattern defines this support. A significant decline will occur. A break below $3,850 will indicate a significant decline. by a break below $3,850. However, the likelihood of an upside breakthrough will increase if there is a robust recovery over $4,200 following a decline below $3,850. Prices will rise to $4,350 if they break above $4,200. However, a break over $4,350 will allow for a move in the direction of $5,000. The likelihood of a sharp and rapid decline in the gold market, signifying the ultimate bottom, will rise if it breaks below $3,850. Since March 2026, the spot gold 4-hour chart has likewise demonstrated significant bearish price movement. Gold is under bearish pressure when rounded tops form below $5,000 and then below $4,500. To confirm the bottom and start a rebound towards $4,500, prices must quickly rise above $4,200. A break above $4,500 will be encouraging and pave the way for a move in the direction of $5,000. Instead of focusing on the actual fighting, the gold market spent Friday trading the inflationary effects of war. Concerns that inflation would pick back up Rising crude oil prices rekindled concerns that inflation would pick back up, caused by rising crude oil prices, which caused markets to lower their expectations for Federal Reserve easing. Even if geopolitical concerns remained high, this caused the U.S. currency and Treasury yields to rise, posing challenges for gold. The steep selloff on Thursday was somewhat reversed by the rise, but traders' focus remained on the interest-rate narrative. Gold is experiencing its biggest weekly drop since the beginning of June. On Friday, the rates market continued to have the most impact on gold prices. Previous figures on inflation indicated that pricing pressures were still decreasing. That would have bolstered predictions for lower interest rates later this year under normal circumstances. Rather, traders questioned whether such inflation patterns would continue if the price of crude oil kept rising. As a result, Treasury yields increased and the US dollar gained additional strength. For gold, neither move was advantageous. As the market continued to consolidate in front of the June 30 major low at $3942.10, spot gold finished higher on Friday. This pattern is significant because it may indicate that countertrend traders are attempting to create a secondary higher bottom, which might force the trend to shift on a breakout over $4202.71. It indicates that traders are attempting to protect themselves against a more significant breach below the long-term bottom around $3886.46. Therefore, minor retracement zone resistance at $4041.65 to $4072.40 and $4162.36 to $4214.34 are potential headwinds, even though the market is supported by $3942.10 and capped by a main top at $4202.71. Before the 50-day moving average at $4291.74 is even contested, buyers will need to conquer resistance.