Good afternoon. This gold analysis is very detailed and interesting to discuss. Allow me to share my perspective on gold market developments and potential future directions, as well as what momentum we can capitalize on for trading. My analysis is quite simple: trend analysis using Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands to read market structure, and MACD to identify momentum.
Moving on to the H4 timeframe, the 3973 level is of primary concern as it represents a strong and valid support area. The price has tested this level several times but has yet to break below it. In fact, at the close of last week, there was a significant bullish reaction after touching this area. This indicates that 3973 remains a solid resistance level for buyers. Although the Bollinger Bands are generally trending downward, caution should be exercised when forcing a sell entry in this area, as the price is starting to show signs of strengthening. If the price manages to break above the middle band, the next upside target could be the upper Bollinger Band or resistance level around 4075. Current momentum also supports this view. On the H4 timeframe, the MACD histogram indicates buyer dominance, as it continues to consistently rise above the signal line. This situation slightly contradicts the bearish trend of the Bollinger Bands, making selling in the support area less efficient and high-risk. In conditions of trend and momentum divergence like this, it would be much wiser to wait for additional confirmation, one of which is a price breakout above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average to confirm a short-term bullish trend change. Personally, my trading plan is to wait for a price breakout above 4050 as initial confirmation of buyer strength. After the breakout occurs, I won't enter immediately but instead wait for a healthy correction around 4027 to find a more ideal price. From there, I will take a buy opportunity with an initial target of 4080, and potentially even higher, towards 4200 if the bullish momentum continues. The reason for this distant target is quite logical because, looking further back into history, the 3973 support area on the H4 coincides with the weekly demand area. This weekly demand area is typically an accumulation area for large buyers or represents a major trend, so the potential for a reversal from this area is very high. Therefore, it can be concluded that although the gold trend is generally still in a downtrend, because the price has now entered a very strong buying area, forcing a sell position is no longer efficient. Therefore, my plan remains to wait for valid uptrend confirmation from the market structure on a smaller timeframe to take buying opportunities with more calculated risk and higher probability.
