The daily chart of the AUD/USD currency pair shows that the market is undergoing a significant structural change, moving from a persistent bearish trend to a possible imminent reversal or at least a strong corrective recovery. The price trend has been clearly bearish over the past few months, with the pair consistently hitting higher and lower levels. This downtrend has been ongoing since mid-September 2024, with a major downtrend channel pushing the pair below the 0.6450 area and reaching the 0.5850 support area. The trend structure indicates strong selling intent and a lack of bullish participation during this period. However, as the price approached the 0.5850 area, things started to change. This level acted as a strong psychological and historical support level and triggered a strong bullish reaction. The market has seen a series of strong closes, with prices rising sharply and significantly. The explosion was very impressive. Because it overcame several resistance levels in the short term, recorded significant recoveries from the 0.6100 and 0.6250 areas and moved towards the 0.6380 area. The speed and verticality of these moves indicate a possible structural breakout in the long-term downtrend. The uptrend is currently halted near the 0.6380 level, which acts as a direct resistance line. This area acted as a supply area when prices consolidated in November and December 2024. Failure to break out of this zone on the first attempt would indicate that there is still a strong resistance level that the bulls will have to overcome decisively to move the long-term structure into bullish territory. If the price continues to rise and breaks the 0.6380 level, the next level to watch is 0.6450, where the downtrend began a few months ago. A sustained move above 0.6450 would effectively invalidate the downtrend structure and initiate a new uptrend phase.
On the other hand, after the recent breakout, several levels act as important support lines. The first and most immediate support line is in the 0.6300-0.6310 range. This level was previously a resistance area and gains additional importance as it coincides with the flat top of the Ichimoku cloud. A decline below this support level could push the price further down to the 0.6240 area, where the previous consolidation and cloud support intersect. This area also represents a breakout point for the continuation of the uptrend. Therefore, it is important that the uptrend structure holds. The core area of 0.6150–0.6180 represents another area of weakness. This level acted as the lower edge of the range for several weeks before the downtrend began. Now that prices have risen significantly above this level, this area will become a key testing ground for buyers’ interest if the market continues to decline. Failure to hold above 0.6150 could result in a major decline towards 0.6000, a psychological level and a former support base in the early stages of a recent bullish reversal. Broader structural developments are also worth noting. Despite the strong recovery, the pair is below the level of a long-term downtrend since its September highs. The current price is attempting to invalidate this trendline, and a clear break above the 0.6380 level followed by continued trading would indicate a significant structural change. By then, the market will have recovered from its downtrend but will not establish a new uptrend, so it will be at a turning point. Volume also supports expectations of a potential reversal, as activity has increased during the recent uptrend, especially the breakout at the 0.6100 level. The increasing volume during the price increase is likely a sign that institutional investors are very engaged and confident in defending the 0.5850 support area. The price structure of the AUD/USD currency pair has shifted from a clear downtrend to a recovery mode characterized by a strong uptrend. The key resistance level at 0.6380 will determine whether this move will result in a full trend reversal. Immediate support at 0.6310 and 0.6240 will be important to maintain the recent uptrend. If this level holds and the bulls regain control, a move above 0.6450 is likely. However, if support
