EURAUD Daily Outlook The daily chart of the EUR/AUD currency pair shows a clear uptrend that began in early 2025, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase in the second half of 2024. This trend structure is clearly bullish, featuring a series of sharp peaks and troughs that lasted until mid-April 2025. The currency pair rebounded from levels below 1.65 and reached a high of 1.8450 before recovering. This rise reflects continued upside momentum, supported by the confluence of ascending exponential moving averages that have maintained strong alignment throughout the uptrend. The chart shows the retracement phase following the recent peak, which is now evaluated in the context of Fibonacci retracement levels. A Fibonacci retracement line is drawn from the low of 1.5970 to the high of 1.8450. The price fell to around 1.7700, a 38.2% decline. This level currently acts as a key support area and has already led to a slight price increase, suggesting that the bulls remain committed to holding this level. If support holds above this level, the next resistance level is at 1.7950, indicating a 23.6% decline. A break above this level would likely result in a retest of the 1.8450 high. However, the trend structure has become more refined in recent years. While the overall economic trend remains bullish, recent price action suggests a potential downside breakout from the aggressive uptrend line that supported the rally from early March to mid-April 2025. This downtrend and the formation of lower highs after the 1.8450 high indicate a possible transition into a corrective phase or sideways consolidation. The current price is forming a descending channel or wedge-shaped uptrend, suggesting a potential short-term downside correction within the long-term uptrend. Additional trendlines have been drawn to illustrate the changed structure. The steeper internal trendline has already been broken to the downside, and the price is currently testing a broader support line extending from the lows of early January 2025. A decisive break below this trendline, which currently coincides with the 1.7700 level, could pave the way for a decline to the 50.0% retracement level of 1.7465 and even the 61.8% level around 1.7295. These Fibonacci levels may be natural support areas where the market attempts to stabilize before resuming its uptrend. The recent correction saw a drop in volume, a typical pullback pattern, suggesting that the selling pressure may be temporary and not a complete reversal. These observations also support the notion that the current downtrend is entering a corrective phase. If the market regains upside momentum at current levels or lower Fibonacci support levels, price targets are initially at 1.7950 and then at the recent high at 1.8450. In the event of a sustained break above this high, the long-term target is likely to be around 1.8700 based on previous momentum expectations. In terms of pulse, the indicators appear to be neutral or pointing to a downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering around the 50 level, which is neither overbought nor oversold and reflects the current market volatility. The stochastic oscillator is attempting to break out of the oversold zone, but the lack of a strong crossover suggests there is still room for correction before a clear bullish signal is seen. The MACD indicator is also in a bearish crossover phase, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram values turning negative. However, these indicators often lag behind the price, so signals are more valuable when combined with the price structure than when viewed in isolation. In short, the EUR/AUD currency pair is experiencing a healthy downtrend within the overall uptrend. Key price levels to watch include the 1.7700 support zone, the 38.2% retracement level, and lower support levels at 1.7465 (50%) and 1.7295 (61.8%). On the other hand, a breakout of 1.7950 could lead to a retest of the high of 1.8450. As long as the price stays above 1.7295, the overall trend remains intact, but a significant drop below this level could well lead to a trend reversal.
