FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

Trend Structure Overview The daily chart of the USOIL index shows the market consolidating in a downtrend. Crude oil prices peaked near 71.40 before beginning a sharp decline, breaking through several support levels with strong downside momentum. This sharp decline is characterized by a dominant downtrend line that began at the 71.40 high and anchored prices in the recent high range of 67.00-68.00. This downside resistance continues to push prices lower and remains a major obstacle to any potential recovery. The price recently attempted to bounce off the 57.40 low and formed a swing low that coincided with the 100.0% Fibonacci extension. However, the recovery attempt lost momentum at the 50.0% retracement level near 63.90, where the price was rejected and the downtrend resumed. The interaction with the Fibonacci retracement levels highlights the systematic nature of the price action within the downtrend and further underscores the importance of these areas for future moves. Critical Resistance Levels The next resistance level is currently in the 63.90-64.00 range, which corresponds to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from the 71.40 high to the 57.40 low. This level formed the upper boundary of the recent corrective wave and is closely associated with the Ichimoku (Kumo) Cloud, which also reinforces this area as an important resistance barrier. Above this level, the next challenge will be the 38.2% retracement of 65.80, and if price breaks this level, it will reach the price confluence area at 67.20, which includes the downtrend line and the 23.6% retracement. Without a decisive break above the cloud and the downtrend line, further uptrend will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, the range from 63.90 to 65.80 is important. A strong close above this area with high volume and momentum is the first sign of a reversal in the medium-term trend from down to neutral or possibly up. Support Structure and Downside Risk In a downtrend, immediate support is at 61.0, which is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained decline below this level could lead to a retest of the swing low at 57.40, which would represent a 100.0% extension of the previous downtrend. This level has already proven itself as a demand zone and is likely to provide decisive support if the downward pressure continues. If 57.40 fails to hold, the next psychological/technical level would be 55.00, followed by a historical demand level near 52.80. These levels go back to previous support areas of the previous trading range and represent deeper structural areas where large market participants can enter. Ichimoku Cloud Dynamics The Ichimoku Cloud confirms the downtrend. The current price is trading below the Kumo Cloud, while the cloud itself is dense and sloping downwards. The Tenkansen and Baseline indicators are also showing a downward trend, and since the Tenkan is falling below the Baseline, sellers are intervening more actively in this market. In addition, the Pending Expansion Indicator (Chikou) is below the price and the cloud, which confirms the validity of the bearish structure in several dimensions of the Ichimoku. For the bullish scenario to materialize, the price must first break the resistance level at 63.90 and then move from the resistance area to the support area. Only then can a trend reversal be technically realized. Technical Indicators The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41.78, indicating a continuing downward trend, but has not yet reached the sell-off level. This leaves room for further declines without an immediate correction. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is also showing a pronounced bearish trend, with the chart in negative territory and the MACD line well below the signal line. This formation confirms the continuation of the downtrend and reduces the likelihood of a sharp reversal. Trading volume has not increased significantly over the past few days, suggesting that sellers are tired or are waiting for prices to move higher. However, the lack of significant buying volume in the attempted recovery near 63.90 suggests that bullish interest is limited at current levels. Conclusion The USOIL chart shows a clear downtrend structure defined by a strong descending trend line, several failed upside attempts at key retracement levels, and ongoing resistance from the Ichimoku Cloud. If the price breaks the 63.90 (50% Fibonacci) level and breaks the 61.00 (61.8% Fibonacci), the downward momentum is expected to resume, with a risk of retesting the 57.40 level or falling below it. If we break the 65.80 level and the trend line, we will see a structural change. Until then, sellers will dominate the trend, and the upside is likely to come under pressure from key resistance areas.