BTCUSD Daily Outlook Bitcoin (BTC) trades in a complex macroeconomic and regulatory environment closely tied to institutional investors, central bank policies, and speculator interests. In particular, the approval and capital injection into the Bitcoin spot ETF have strengthened the legitimacy of the market and increased its stability. Meanwhile, the price decline in 2024 supports the long-term bullish scenario by limiting future issuance and increasing the scarcity of the cryptocurrency. The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve also plays an important role. Despite low inflation, the downward trend in interest rates is very positive for Bitcoin, which is often seen as a hedge against the decline of fiat currencies. In addition, macroeconomic volatility, such as geopolitical tensions and a weak banking sector, contribute to Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, attractive to both individual and institutional investors. All these fundamental factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s enormous growth, which is clearly reflected in its robust technical structure. Technically, Bitcoin has formed a strong and sustainable uptrend after a sustained downtrend in the second half of 2022. The price is moving in a wide ascending channel characterized by successive higher highs and lower lows, indicating a structural uptrend. The boundaries of the channel are clearly defined. The support line limits any significant drop, while the resistance line blocks any upward breakout. Bitcoin is currently trading at $108,599, approaching the upper resistance area of this ascending channel. This suggests a potential test of the upper boundary between $112,500 and $118,000. As long as the price continues to move along the dynamic support line of the channel (currently between $94,000 and $96,000), the current uptrend structure remains intact. The price recently experienced a significant drop after reaching the upper boundary of the channel. This is typical for trending markets, which usually resume their uptrend after such a correction. Higher lows in any downtrend confirm bullish sentiment and continued buying at lower price levels. A break above the upper resistance line of the channel could lead to a parabolic extension to the previous high and new levels beyond. Fibonacci retracement levels provide additional convergence zones to assess support and resistance. The decline from the low of $22,752 to the current high is an important area to monitor. The 23.6% retracement level is at $94,433, which is roughly the lower boundary of the current sideways move. A sharp correction could extend to the 38.2% retracement level at $88,460, which previously acted as resistance but is now expected to act as support. A break above this level could pave the way for the 50% retracement level at $82,486, followed by $76,513 and finally $61.80. However, this could indicate a deeper structural correction and a temporary weakening of the upward momentum. Momentum indicators are pointing to a potential short-term decline, urging traders to exercise caution. The MACD indicator is stabilizing and showing signs of a bearish trend reversal, indicating weak upward momentum. Likewise, the RSI is currently at 54.32, indicating a neutral but bearish zone and weak buying pressure. The Stochastic indicator recently broke out of overbought territory and is currently trading at 69.84, indicating a short-term sideways trend or consolidation phase before further gains. While these indicators call for caution, they do not yet indicate a complete trend reversal, so the overall bullish structure remains intact. The price is trading above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, all of which are trending higher and supporting the uptrend. The 20-day moving average, currently approaching the $100,000 level, acts as immediate dynamic support and may provide buyers with a reversal opportunity if the price stops rising. The 50-day moving average at $94,000 and the 100-day moving average at $88,000 are weaker but structurally important support levels. In summary, Bitcoin's technical analysis shows a continued bullish trend, supported by strong macroeconomic and fundamental trends. Short-term momentum indicators point to a possible price correction. However, barring a significant breakout of the support level, the overall bullish trend is likely to continue. Investors and traders should closely monitor price action near the upper resistance channel to identify signs of a breakout or correction. A cautious approach, taking into account both the bullish trend structure and current Fibonacci support levels, is essential for predicting Bitcoin's next major bullish trend.
