FX.co ★ GBP/NZD

Fundamental Overview The GBP/NZD exchange rate is heavily influenced by interest rate differentials, risk appetite and commodity cycles. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy stance until 2025 despite domestic inflation. At the same time, the Bank of England (BOE) has carefully managed inflation and supported weak economic growth. Given the weakness of the UK economy and weak global demand for New Zealand’s export-dependent economy, the pound has performed well despite some volatility. Additionally, the New Zealand dollar has a higher beta, providing greater leverage in terms of risk appetite and risk aversion. These macroeconomic factors have led to an upward trend in the GBP/NZD exchange rate, but there have also been some corrections, as shown on the daily chart. Trend Structure and Channel Formation The daily chart of GBP/NZD clearly shows a long-term uptrend channel from the 12 April 2024 low at 2.0800. A series of highs and lows surrounded by two red trend lines formed an uptrend channel. The last significant high was recorded on 17 April 2025 at 2.3250. This high formed the upper boundary of the uptrend channel, indicating a temporary slowdown in the uptrend momentum. Since this high, GBP/NZD has been trading sideways, forming a bearish resistance line between the 17 April high and the subsequent low. The price is currently in a wedge shape. During this downtrend, GBP/NZD dropped sharply but found support at 2.2300-2.2350. This level corresponds to the 23.6% Fib retracement level formed between the 2.0800 low and 2.3250 high. This support level was retested in early June 2025, triggering a rally that led to the current candlestick pattern. The recent candlestick pattern showed a narrow crossover with long upper and lower wicks, indicating a move towards a major crossover of the downtrend line and the Ichimoku Cloud resistance line. Fibonacci Price Levels and Crossovers Fibonacci retracement levels represent important support and resistance levels. The 23.6% level at 2.2350 already represents a turning point in the ongoing sideways move. The nearest resistance level is at 38.2% of 2.2700, where the current Ichimoku Cloud high is located. A break of this level could potentially lead to a rally towards the 50% retracement area at 2.2835 or the 61.8% retracement area at 2.2975. These areas serve as important resistance levels in a bearish correction. On the other hand, a failure to break above 2.2350 could expose the lower boundary of the uptrend channel at 2.2150, which could trigger further declines. A solid break below this level could negate the medium-term uptrend and strengthen the sideways move towards 2.1900, supported by the 200-day moving average and past sideways movements. Ichimoku Kumho and Candlestick Chart Interaction The Ichimoku Kumho chart shows a mixed picture. The price, which has been trading above the cloud for several months, reaches the cloud, signaling a turning point. The last candles in the cloud, especially the recent ones, reflect the hesitation of market participants. The latest candle formed a rotating ceiling with a long wick, indicating a balance of bullish and bearish pressure near 2.2600. If this candle forms near the resistance line, it could serve as a temporary downtrend signal or a reversal signal if the uptrend does not continue into the next trading day. The previous large bullish candle on June 5, 2025, showed a strong uptrend at the 2.2300 support level. However, subsequent candles were bearish and failed to provide convincing support. This weakened the range of the previous bullish signal, and further confirmation is needed to confirm the resumption of the uptrend. Momentum Indicators and Trend Confirmation While the MACD is slightly below zero, the MACD and signal line are flat and slightly negative, indicating weak momentum. No clear bullish crossover has been observed yet, limiting expectations for an imminent uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 47.86, indicating a neutral trend. The RSI is neither overbought nor oversold and is following an uptrend. A close above 2.2700 could signal a recovery in momentum. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating decreasing volatility and a possible breakout. The direction of this breakout will largely depend on a clear breakout above the resistance levels at 2.2700 and 2.2750, or a breakout below 2.2350. Predictions and Conclusions The daily chart of GBP/NZD suggests that the market is at a turning point within an overall bullish pattern. The long-term trend remains bullish, but the current falling wedge pattern within the channel suggests a sideways move. The price is currently at a technical turning point, testing both the downside resistance at 2.2600-2.2700 and the upper cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. A clear break and close above this area could pave the way for a rally to 2.2835, with 2.2975 a potential target. If the bears encounter resistance in this area and close below 2.2350, further downside pressure towards 2.2150 is more likely. If the trendline support weakens, a drop towards 2.1900 is possible. In summary, the GBP/NZD pair is structurally sound, but temporarily constrained by a consolidation pattern. Traders should closely monitor 2.2700 and wait for confirmation of the breakout. This level remains a significant bearish reversal point. Candlestick movements and momentum signals suggest that there is a waiting phase before a decisive trend reversal occurs.