FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Hello traders, It's interesting to look at the forecasts of major banks regarding the price of gold. They vary. For instance, UBS, which has been actively trying to weaken the dollar, advises investors to ignore the U.S. government shutdown, deeming the concerns exaggerated. By June, they predict a gold price around $3900 per ounce, highlighting its role as a hedge against economic and political turmoil. Goldman Sachs goes even further. Their forecast is $4000 by mid-year and $4300 by December next year. The bank openly states that precious metal is their primary long position. Analysts attribute the rise to three main factors: a sharp increase in assets of Western ETFs, a resurgence in demand from central banks after a summer lull, and to a lesser extent, an increase in speculative positions, which the bank believes make up only about one percent of the flows. The technical analysis once again points to a high probability of a reversal. The level of $3906.25 (Murray +2.8), where bulls started to unwind positions, is ideal for a change in direction. I assume that trading may consolidate for some time within a range bounded by this resistance and the support level of $3828.12 (Murray +1.8) or below the H4 Kijun line.