BTC/USD Technical & Fundamental Analysis December 06, 2025 This professional analysis provides an overview of the current market conditions for BTC/USD as of December 6, 2025, considering key fundamental and technical drivers, and proposes a short-term trade setup based on the prevailing market sentiment.
Pair Focus: The analysis centers on BTC/USD (Bitcoin against the US Dollar) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Bitcoin is currently trading at $89,633. This pair is heavily influenced by global risk appetite, crypto-specific developments, and US monetary policy, particularly the actions of the Federal Reserve.
Fundamental Overview: The primary fundamental driver is the highly anticipated US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for December 10. Markets are currently pricing in a significant 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, moving the target range from 3.75–4.00% down to 3.50–3.75%. A rate cut is generally bullish for Bitcoin as it represents an easing of monetary policy, increasing liquidity, and weakening the US Dollar. This move is supported by a reported cooling labor market and easing inflation in the US. If the Fed delivers the expected cut, it would be the third reduction this year and would likely fuel further risk-on sentiment, benefiting Bitcoin. Conversely, a no-cut decision or a surprisingly hawkish statement would likely lead to a sharp sell-off.
Technical Analysis: The price action suggests a battle between bulls and bears. While the price has recovered from the recent low of $83,800, it currently trades below the pivotal $91,000 level and faces substantial overhead resistance from key long-term moving averages:
50-day EMA: $97,770
100-day EMA: $103,060
200-day EMA: $104,200
Indicators: MACD: Has maintained a bullish outlook since crossing the signal line on November 26, supporting the recent recovery bounce.
RSI (14): Sits at 44, indicating increasing bearish momentum and suggesting that the recent bullish action is corrective within a broader downtrend, or that upside conviction is waning.
Key Levels: Immediate Support: $89,500 (recent demand zone) and the strong psychological level of $80,000.
Immediate Resistance: $92,975 (technical intersection/former support), followed by $97,770 (50-day EMA) and the psychological $100,000 mark.
Market Sentiment: The immediate sentiment is cautiously optimistic/neutral, heavily driven by the expectation of a Fed rate cut. While the MACD offers a technical bullish signal, the descending RSI and failure to hold above $91,000 indicate underlying weakness. The Fear & Greed Index reportedly has slipped to 25 (Fear), suggesting a cautious mood despite the rate-cut optimism, which could set the stage for a sharp move once the Fed announcement is made.
Trade Setup (Pre-Fed Anticipation): Given the strong market probability of a rate cut, a short-term, speculative Buy position is justified, targeting a move toward key resistance leading into the Fed announcement.
Bias: Buy (Long)
Entry: $90,000 (A break and hold above the psychological $90,000 mark)
Stop-Loss (SL): $88,500 (Below recent demand/consolidation support)
Take-Profit 1 (TP1): $93,000 (Just below the key technical resistance at $92,975)
Take-Profit 2 (TP2): $97,500 (Just below the 50-day EMA and high-volume node)
Risk: Reward (R: R): To TP1: (3,000 Pips / 1,500 Pips) = 2.0:1 To TP2: (7,500 Pips / 1,500 Pips) = 5.0:1
Upcoming Events: The most critical event this week is the US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on December 10. This is a high-impact event that will either confirm the markets dovish pricing or shock the market with a hawkish hold, dictating BTC/USDs near-term direction.
