FX.co ★ NZD/USD

I like to start my analysis of the New Zealand dollar/US dollar pair by looking at the daily timeframe, where I notice a strong local high at 0.6120, which I observed the price bounced off before reversing south, forming a wide downward price channel. I see that within this larger downward channel, another upward wave had formed, which I now consider complete. I notice that the price has already bounced off the resistance line, and I am currently watching it trade at 0.5833. I take into account that a reversal pin bar formed earlier, followed by a red daily candlestick, and I interpret this as a strong signal that the decline may continue from the current level toward my target of 0.5740. I find it important to recognize that daily chart signals are showing bearish pressure, which I believe sets the tone for the next moves. I then like to shift my focus to the hourly timeframe to gain a more detailed understanding of shorter-term price action. I observe that we previously formed a technically correct ascending price channel, within which I tracked the pair until recently, when I saw the price break the lower boundary of the northern channel at 0.5845. I notice that after this breakout, the pair entered a period of flat trading, which I analyze as forming a price triangle. I interpret this triangle as resembling a bullish flag continuation pattern, and I expect that I will likely see a breakout of its upper boundary in the near term. I plan to monitor a potential retest of the previous high at 0.5855, which I consider a key level before the uptrend continues. I also integrate my observations from the daily chart with the hourly price structure, and I think that despite the short-term bearish signals, the hourly triangle may provide a bullish continuation if the breakout occurs. I pay close attention to my risk levels and anticipate that the market may oscillate around these critical support and resistance zones before establishing a decisive trend. I conclude that I will continue to watch both timeframes, as I believe the interplay between daily bearish pressure and hourly bullish continuation patterns will provide opportunities for careful entry and exit points in my trading strategy

I just looked at the NZD/USD pair on the H4 chart, and I notice that the situation is not much different from what I observed on the daily timeframe, which I find confirms the overall context of the market. I see that the pair has experienced a fair amount of growth recently, and I observe it testing a strong horizontal resistance level at 0.5828, which I consider a critical barrier for further upside. I notice that there were attempts to push higher, and I see that the price even rose slightly above this level, which I interpret as a sign that the bulls are still active but struggling to gain decisive control. I consider the possibility that the pair could form a northward zigzag, and I calculate that this pattern could aim to test the Fibonacci extension at 0.5905, which I mark as a potential target if bullish momentum returns. I reflect on my trading approach, and I know that I am not planning to buy, as I remain cautious in this market environment. I evaluate the current price action carefully, and I think there may be an opportunity to consider shorting, so I contemplate opening a sell from the current 0.5828-0.5840 zone, which I regard as a reasonable entry if bearish signals confirm. I remind myself that I should not wait for a test of 0.59 to enter, and I assess that taking a short from the current zone might allow me to catch a potential reversal early. I acknowledge that I am far from certain I will decide to open a short here, and I make a mental note to wait for additional confirmation from candlestick patterns or momentum indicators before taking action. I continuously compare the H4 observations with the daily and H1 analyses I conducted earlier, and I find that I can better understand the alignment of short-term resistance with longer-term trends. I also consider how the price reacted to prior levels, and I evaluate the risk-reward ratio for any potential short position I might take, ensuring that I only act if the setup meets my criteria. I conclude that I will continue monitoring both H4 and higher timeframes carefully, and I believe that integrating my observations across multiple charts allows me to make more informed trading decisions while remaining patient and disciplined