I personally observe that the first bearish wave, in my view, has been completed quite distinctly on the daily chart. I am currently focusing on the small sideways consolidation that I see developing between 1.1660 and 1.1630, which I interpret as a corrective phase. I believe this pause is a necessary regrouping before the next leg downward, and I fully expect us to eventually break below the lower boundary of this range. I consider this anticipated break to be the catalyst for building a second, follow-on sell wave, and I hold the perspective that two such waves constitute the absolute minimum foundation for a confirmed directional movement
Furthermore, I analyze the Ichimoku Cloud and note that its selling wave is completing, which I find to be executed with remarkable technical precision. I can clearly calculate three distinct waves from the bends in the histogram’s body, and I see this structure as logically sound. I recognize that it is typical for the histogram to exhibit a bullish correction upon concluding such a cycle, and I am already observing the initial stages of that upward curl. I anticipate that this bullish retracement will itself unfold in three sub-waves, and I am paying close attention to the fact that the final segment of the histogram appears extended, suggesting a more vigorous counter-trend push is brewing. However, I maintain my firm conviction that this impending bullish energy will only materialize in full force later; I am convinced we must first exhaust the downward potential. I see the current market structure as a temporary hesitation, a coiled spring for the bears, and I am patiently waiting for the resolve to falter at the 1.1630 level so we can journey deeper south. I think the underlying sentiment is still skewed toward a continuation of the broader decline, and I interpret all these technical nuances as pieces of a puzzle that, when assembled, point to a further drop before any significant reversal can gain traction. I am therefore positioning my analysis and my expectations on the premise that we are merely pausing before piercing through the noted support, and I am preparing for a move that probes significantly lower levels in the sessions ahead.
