FX.co ★ EUR/USD

The EUR/USD exchange rate is currently navigating a pivotal technical junction, trading near 1.1828 as the market reopens for the final week of February 2026. While a visible triangle pattern on the daily chart has led some to anticipate a bearish breakdown, the broader structural uptrend appears to remain resilient. The recent 2.8% decline from the January high of 1.2095 is being interpreted by many as a healthy partial correction rather than a trend reversal, especially as the pair finds support near its yearly open. A "triple reversal" pattern has emerged, suggesting that the initial bearish momentum may be exhausting itself. Traders are particularly focused on the 1.1807 level, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing. Consolidation above this threshold during the Asian session could neutralize short-term selling pressure and catalyze a fresh impulsive wave toward the psychological 1.2000 handle. This bullish outlook is fundamentally supported by a widening growth-inflation gap; while Eurozone PMIs have surged to a 22-month high of 53.9, U.S. Q4 GDP dramatically underwhelmed at 1.4%, largely due to the drag from the historic government shutdown. The EUR/USD pair is similarly positioned at a technical crossroads, currently undergoing an upward corrective phase with a primary target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.1790. The pair has shown signs of bottoming out after testing ultra-low retracement levels, with a consolidation zone now forming around the 38.2% level. Market participants are debating whether this represents a temporary pause before a deeper decline or the foundation for a move toward the 1.1830 target. Given the mixed signals from U.S. trade policy following the Supreme Court’s ruling against national security tariffs, a patient approach is warranted until key resistance levels are decisively breached. My recent trade management reflects this caution: after a missed long entry at 1.1740, I successfully navigated a short at 1.1773, closing it manually before a late-week squeeze tested 1.1806. Protecting capital in this volatile environment remains paramount, evidenced by moving stops to breakeven and utilizing partial hedges to mitigate risk from the 50-day moving average at 1.1768. The coming sessions will be critical for assessing how the market handles the liquidity pockets above 1.1800. If the Asian session can clear the local short-side liquidity without a sharp rejection, it would confirm that the "triple reversal" is in play. Furthermore, the stabilization of ECB leadership under Christine Lagarde—who confirmed she will serve her full term until 2027—provides a much-needed layer of political certainty for the Euro. Conversely, any renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, potentially driven by a "flight to safety" amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East, could force a retest of the 1.1684 support zone. For now, the strategy remains defensive: prioritizing breakeven adjustments and reduced position sizes until the price action confirms that the corrective phase has reached its terminus.