CAD/CHF Daily Chart Analysis The daily CAD/CHF chart shows a broad topping pattern after an uptrend surge in late November and then a clearly defined bearish downtrend till February 2026. From 20th Oct 2025, the price rose gradually, constantly making higher highs and higher lows, till early November. On 1st Dec, the bullish momentum sped up, and a strong and impulsive candle pushed the pair towards the 0.5820-0.5840 area. This rally was the most intense part of the price move up, and on 2nd Dec price recorded a spike high near 0.5845, creating a blow-off top with very long upper shadows, thus showing selling pressure. After the 2nd Dec high, the price action changed from an impulsive uptrend to a corrective and finally distributive. On 9th Dec and 26th Dec, price hovered, and even slightly lower, forming a big range that lasted for the whole month between about 0.5760 and 0.5820. The market during this period on achieving a higher high above the 2nd Dec peak was unsuccessful, thus reflecting a declining bullish drive. The moving averages started to level off, illustrating the fading of the directional conviction. The initial evident structural break happened near 14th January 2026. A line of bearish candles drove the price under the 0.5740 support zone, thus confirming a lower high relative to late December and setting the scene for the beginning of a descending trend structure. On 21st Jan, a massive bearish expansion candle sharply broke below 0.5700, went through mid-range support, and thus marked the trend acceleration. Consequently, this breakdown gave rise to a new impulsive leg lower and thus confirmed a second short-term bearish market structure with lower highs and lower lows. The fall was prolonged until 29th Jan, where the price got to a swing low near 0.5600. This level corresponds with the 0% Fibonacci reference on the chart and thus marks the lowest visible trough in the current cycle. The journey from about 0.5760 on 14th Jan down to 0.5600 on 29th Jan made a clear impulse wave. After this, a corrective bounce was seen in early February. From 30th Jan to 6th Feb, the price moved upward to a 50.0% (around 0.5685) and briefly tested the 61.8% zone near 0.5700. However, the rise was weak, and the movement of the price showed overlapping bodies, which indicated a buying that was corrective rather than impulsive. Throughout early February, a descending trendline drawn from the lower high on 14th Jan continued to be respected. Subsequently, on 9th and 12th February, the price failed to close above this descending resistance line by a margin, thereby strengthening the bearish trend structure. The market made a new lower high on 6th Feb near 0.5700, which is significantly below the peak of January, thus confirming the sequence of the downtrend. Further on, from 12th Feb, the price was again a bit lower as it made a retest of the 23.6% retracement level area near 0.5640. On 19th Feb and 20th Feb, the pair was in a range between 0.5630 and 0.5670, creating a tightening pattern as the descending trendline was meeting a rising short, term support line from the low of 29th Jan. This squeeze is indicative of a possible breakout setup, but the main structure remains bearish as long as price is not able to break and hold above 0.5700 and then take back 0.5760, which corresponds to the 100% retracement level on the chart. Momentum indicators weigh in on the overall bearish bias. Following the zero line from mid-January, the MACD histogram has been indicating the sustained downside pressure, but the recent bars show a slight contraction, which can be interpreted as a moment of slowing momentum. RSI is stuck around the mid, 40s area and does not manage to enter an overbought state during the corrective bounces, which is the usual pattern in a bearish trend. The primary bearish leg is defined by the trend structure from 2nd Dec to 29th Jan. The Jan 29th to late February movement looks like a correction against the downtrend. If lower highs keep being made under 0.5760 and especially under 0.5820, the broader technical picture will be dominated by a continuation toward or below the 0.5600 January low. A strong break of the descending trend line and a new high above the last swing would be the only reason to expect a significant reversal instead of the continuation of the bearish consolidation.
