From my personal perspective, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently in a rather confusing situation because its movement direction hasn't provided a truly clear signal. Looking at the daily timeframe, the market structure is actually still in a downtrend. This was evident after the price broke through the 1.1408 support level in trading last week. Despite this, the price rebounded, reaching around 1.146, creating the possibility of a reversal. However, considering the Bollinger Bands' trendline, which is still trending downwards, and the price's inability to move above the middle Bollinger Bands or form a higher high, the main trend can still be categorized as bearish. On the other hand, the MACD histogram, which is already above the signal line, indicates that buying momentum is starting to increase. This could indeed signal the beginning of a reversal, but in my opinion, this signal still requires additional confirmation. As long as the trend structure remains unchanged, I still prefer to follow the current trend direction, looking for selling opportunities. To get better confirmation, I then look at the movement on a smaller timeframe.
Looking at the H4 timeframe, EUR/USD is indeed rising, but its movement is still stuck in the 1.145 supply area. The price has retested this area twice, but has not yet broken through and has instead experienced a further, albeit limited, decline. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe are still trending upward, so the opportunity for price to continue rising remains open. However, if the price eventually falls through the middle Bollinger Bands or falls below the 1.136 support area, this could confirm that selling pressure is again dominating, opening the door to a longer-term bearish trend continuation. Furthermore, the MACD indicator on the H4 timeframe is starting to show signs of overbought, increasing the potential for a downward correction. Currently, the price is starting to move down towards the 1.143 area, making this level quite interesting to monitor. Based on the combined analysis on the daily and H4 timeframes, I am still focusing more on looking for selling opportunities than buying. As long as the main daily trend hasn't turned bullish, I consider any uptrend to be merely a retracement before the downtrend resumes. For day trading, I'm considering a sell entry around 1.143 with a stop-loss above the 1.148 resistance level and a first target at the 1.136 support area. If this support is broken, the potential for a decline towards 1.130 will increase, making the sell scenario still the primary option for the longer term. Therefore, the conclusion of my analysis this time is to remain focused on selling opportunities because so far I haven't seen any truly strong and valid buy signals. Hopefully, this analysis can provide additional reference and discussion material for all of us.
