Good afternoon, . You're so excited to update your journal today. May I join in the discussion? This time, I'd also like to share my views on the EUR/USD currency pair. In my opinion, the current trend is starting to change compared to last week. While the price was still showing an upward trend at the close of the previous week, now pressure from sellers is starting to show, causing the price to experience a downward correction. Here's my analysis.
When viewed on the daily timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are still trending downward, indicating that the primary trend remains bearish. The price increase thus far can still be considered a correction phase as it has not yet broken through the middle Bollinger Band area. Instead, the price experienced rejection around 1.146, which serves as both a supply and dynamic resistance area within the middle Bollinger Band. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has not yet broken below the signal line and remains above it. Nevertheless, the rejection in this resistance area is starting to signal that the potential for a continuation of the downtrend remains quite open. Furthermore, the price's position below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) further reinforces the impression that the dominant trend remains downward. Moving to the 4-hour timeframe, the price increase is still held back in the supply area around 1.145. This zone was previously a consolidation zone before a sharp decline or a drop-base-drop pattern. Such areas generally act as quite strong resistance, especially as they have successfully held off price increases, such as the current one. If the price falls again and manages to break through the 1.140 level while remaining below the middle Bollinger Band, this could serve as additional confirmation to look for a sell opportunity. Indicators are also starting to show overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram has moved below the signal line, further supporting the potential for weakness. Based on this overall analysis, I conclude that EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend on the larger timeframe. Therefore, my trading plan today is to look for sell opportunities around the 1.144 level with a stop-loss at 1.148 and a profit target in the 1.133 area. That concludes my analysis of EUR/USD's movement today. I hope this provides additional reference material and is useful for Opeope Nomi and my friends who participated in this discussion. Thank you.
