FX.co ★ GBP/USD

Gold prices (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure during Asian trading on Tuesday, after the previous day's modest recovery from three-month lows came to an abrupt end, with the strength of the US dollar also weighing on commodity markets. Despite the renewed bearish momentum, gold prices held above the psychologically significant $4,000 level, as market participants remained cautious ahead of Wednesday's key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision. While recent public comments from Fed officials have not signaled an immediate readiness to raise benchmark interest rates, the futures market is still generally pricing in an over 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December meeting. Rising energy costs, driven by ongoing supply tensions in the Middle East, are fueling concerns about global inflation and reinforcing expectations of longer-term monetary tightening. Therefore, since the latest summary of economic projections will not be released at this meeting, investors' attention remains heavily focused on the Federal Reserve's policy statement and the press conference held by Chairman Kevin Warsh after the meeting for clearer guidance on the direction of policy. In addition to the immediate risks stemming from the central bank's events, upcoming US economic data contains several high-impact catalysts that will significantly influence the valuation of the US dollar and the direction of non-interest-bearing gold. Investors are paying close attention to the preliminary value of US GDP for the third quarter and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, both released on Thursday. Strong GDP growth, coupled with stable core PCE data, would provide fundamental support for the Fed's hawkish policies, push Treasury yields higher, and bolster the US Dollar Index (DXY), allowing it to recover from its recent multi-week decline. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also supported demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. The stalled diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran, coupled with a series of recent security incidents, including Houthi attacks on oil pumping stations in eastern and western Saudi Arabia and Riyadh airport, as well as reports of Hezbollah's military preparations in Lebanon, continue to place a significant geopolitical risk premium on energy and foreign exchange markets and exert downward pressure on spot gold.

Based on the technical chart, the XAU/USD pair maintains a clear short-term downtrend after breaking out of its previous short-term trading range. Spot prices continue to trade well below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $4198.08, which represents a key technical resistance limiting price gains. The dynamic momentum indicator is showing slight signs of stabilization, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line rising above the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also climbing out of oversold territory to around 30. However, technical analysts interpret these subtle momentum gains as temporary pullbacks within the prevailing downtrend rather than structural trend reversals. To confirm the extension of the downtrend toward deeper structural support, sellers will need to achieve a clear 4-hour candle close below the key psychological level of $4,000, which could expose secondary downside targets at $3,950 and the July low (near $3,900). On the upside, immediate technical resistance consists of the breakout point in the $4,065-$4,075 range, followed by the psychological level at $4,100. A sustained move above $4,100 will be needed to pave the way for a retest of the 200-period moving average at $4,198.08 and the key full mark at $4,200. It remains crucial that bulls reclaim the $4,200 supply zone on a daily close to offset the current bearish structure and open the way for a more pronounced multi-week trend reversal.