On the hourly chart for EUR/USD, the market showed sideways movement in the afternoon yesterday. After the market closed, an ascending triangle pattern formed. Price action has been within the bearish zone of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the pair is priced at 1.0417. The RSI and MACD indicators are both below the zero level, indicating bearish momentum. If the price breaks above and consolidates within the triangle, I’ll look to buy. Conversely, if the price closes below the triangle, I’ll consider a sell. Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead!Here’s your analysis reworded: Last week on the EUR/USD hourly chart, Monday through Wednesday saw the price moving within a range. On Thursday, the support at 1.0530 was broken, and the price consolidated below this level, triggering a sell signal towards the support at 1.0445. This sell signal played out on Friday, and the support at 1.0445 was also broken. The price then consolidated below this level, which suggested a further decline towards the next support at 1.0335. The price reached this level, and the sell signal was successful. Moving forward, if the price breaks above the resistance at 1.04459 and holds above it, with a bounce off this level, the next target for buys would be the resistance at 1.0530.
The trend continues its downward movement, with the price not even nearing the higher 200 moving average, let alone showing signs of a reversal. What’s notable is that each subsequent decline is happening with increasing speed, while corrective movements are confined within a narrow range, not exceeding forty points. The recent drop in the Euro broke through the expected channel boundary and consolidated below it. Given the strength of this decline, I believe further downward movement is likely. Oscillators are not signaling a reversal or an upward move anytime soon. The stochastic histogram can remain in this position for a while, and the channel oscillator isn’t indicating any growth either. So, I’m anticipating further declines, potentially towards the 1.0270 level, which also coincides with the 200% Fibonacci retracement from the first wave. The past trading week was quite unexpected, catching many traders off guard, including myself. While we all anticipated a decline, the outcome was surprising. Personally, I was expecting a deeper upward correction from the 1.0500 level, and I even managed to close a couple of buy trades. Once the price broke the 1.0500 level, I decided to buy again. Unfortunately, I had to close that position at a loss. Looking ahead to next week, based on today’s fundamental data, it seems likely that the downward trend will continue starting Monday.
