Technical Analysis 15 Jully 2025 EUR/USD D-1 
The market analysis provided suggests a strong likelihood of the US dollar strengthening in the coming days against major currencies, despite the current upward movement on a "senior chart." This prediction is primarily based on widespread bearish divergences observed on the MACD indicator across several major currency pairs against the USD. Here's a breakdown of the key points and their implications: * Current Market State: * Upward Wave Structure: The "senior chart" (likely a higher timeframe chart, e.g., weekly or monthly) shows an upward building order, implying a long-term bullish trend. * MACD in Upper Purchase Zone, Declining: The MACD is in an area typically associated with buying, but it's already declining below its signal line. This is a potential warning sign, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum. * Bearish Divergence on MACD: This is the most critical signal highlighted. A bearish divergence occurs when the price makes higher highs, but the MACD makes lower highs. This indicates that the upward price movement is not being supported by underlying momentum and can often foreshadow a price reversal or significant pullback. * Mediocre Decline Despite Pressure: Last week's efforts to push the price down resulted in a weak decline, contrasting with a more intense decline observed in the "pound with similar signals." This suggests some resilience in the current upward move, but the divergence still points to underlying weakness. * Prior Resistance at 1.1451: An attempt to decline in June was thwarted by a strong horizontal resistance level at 1.1451. The price subsequently rebounded and moved higher. This historical price action confirms the significance of horizontal levels. * Anticipated US Dollar Strengthening: * Widespread Bearish Divergences: The key driver for the strengthening USD prediction is the presence of bearish divergences on the MACD on the daily timeframe for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. * Bullish Divergences on USD/CAD and USD/CHF: Conversely, bullish divergences are noted on USD/CAD and USD/CHF. A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes lower lows, but the MACD makes higher lows, suggesting a potential upward reversal or continuation of an uptrend (in this case, for the USD). * Complex Market Signal: The overall picture, with divergences in various directions across different pairs, is described as a "complex market signal for the strengthening of the US dollar." However, the net effect, in the analyst's opinion, points to USD strength. * Trading Strategy: * Focus on Sales (Short Positions): Given the anticipated US dollar strengthening and the bearish divergences, the recommendation is to consider sales (short positions) during the day. * Target Levels: The primary reduction targets are the horizontal support level of 1.1594 (based on candle closing prices) and an ascending trendline. * Expectation for Today: The analyst expects the price to reach these targets today, as it did not on Monday. In summary, the analysis suggests that while the "senior chart" shows an upward trend, underlying technical indicators, particularly the MACD, are signaling a potential shift in momentum favoring the US dollar. The presence of bearish divergences on several major currency pairs against the USD and bullish divergences on USD pairs reinforces this view, making short positions on non-USD currencies (like EUR, GBP, AUD, and NZD) against the USD seem more promising, with specific price targets in mind.
