FX.co ★ CL/Crude Oil

Crude Oil 1-H Time Frame Update With prices testing the 200-day moving average at $63.31, crude oil futures got off to a stronger start to the week. Last week, traders viewed the level as resistance; however, Friday's recovery from $61.69 has given bulls the confidence to try a breakout. The long-term pivot at $64.56, the 50-day moving average at $64.28, and the high from last week at $64.08 would all be accessible with a persistent upward push. On the downside, there is more protection between $61.45 and $61.12, with support at $62.77. Following Ukraine's largest drone attack on Russian energy assets to date, which targeted at least 361 facilities and caused a fire at the Kirishi refinery, markets are still assessing supply concerns. The incident came after previous attacks on Primorsk, Russia's primary crude export terminal, which has a capacity of one million barrels per day. Analysts caution that a change in Ukraine's energy infrastructure policy would put oil under more long-term upward pressure. President Trump hinted that the United States would impose more penalties on Russia on a political level, but only if NATO countries likewise reduced their purchases. The action demonstrates the geopolitical clout that oil still has in transatlantic relations. Traders must contend with supply issues and oversupply worries as futures push against technical barriers and geopolitics drives the risk premium. Although a failure would keep the market range-bound, a breakout above $63.31 might quicken momentum toward $64.56. The primary external drivers this week continue to be China's stockpiling, OPEC+ output choices, and sanctions talk. Both technical levels and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to support falls in crude, which is still a headline-sensitive trade.