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Trader Journals:::2025-10-15T13:58:34

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Price Forecast USD/CAD edges lower to near 1.4040, outlook remains bullish. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates two times more this year. Fed officials signaled cracks in the US labor market. The USD/CAD pair ticks down to near 1.4040 on Wednesday. The Loonie pair is marginally down during the European trading session even as the US Dollar has declined, suggesting that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is also weak. During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% lower to near 98.80. The US Dollar faces selling pressure as comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled cracks in the labor market. On Tuesday, Fed’s Powell warned of softening job demand, with economic growth remaining somewhat higher than projected and inflation well above the desired 2% target. “Economic activity data are surprising to the upside, creating some tension with the labour market data,” Powell said. Deteriorating US labor market conditions have also bolstered wagers for more interest rate cuts by the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 94.6% that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the remaining year. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar trades lower ahead of Canada’s Manufacturing Sales data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD trades inside Tuesday’s trading range around 1.4040. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3950. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting a strong bullish momentum. Going forward, an upside move by the pair above the October 14 high of 1.4080 would open the door towards the April 8 low of 1.4144, followed by the April 9 high of 1.4274. On the flip side, the asset could slide towards the round level of 1.3600 and June 16 low of 1.3540 if it breaks below the August 7 low of 1.3722.
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