I observe that the current H1 structure, through my technical analysis, resembles a small, developing ascending channel. I note that following a brief correction below the 1.3320 level, the price has now moved back above the medium-term moving average, which suggests to me that bullish pressure is starting to dominate the intraday action. I am also closely watching momentum indicators like the Stochastic and the RSI, as I see both trending upwards from neutral levels, which reinforces my view on the potential for further near-term gains. However, I must acknowledge that this movement appears to be primarily technical in nature, as I cannot attribute it to any significant, new fundamental drivers. I interpret the recent slight weakness in the US dollar as a key contributor, a move I believe is influenced by growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for a longer period. I see that this dynamic has provided the euro with some temporary support, especially after I reviewed the latest eurozone inflation figures which showed a modest improvement. Nevertheless, I maintain a degree of caution because I am also aware of the ongoing weakness in manufacturing data, which, from my assessment, has yet to show convincing signs of a full recovery. Therefore, I currently view the EUR/USD's recent rise as more of a technical rebound rather than what I would consider the beginning of a sustained long-term bullish phase.
I am closely monitoring the price action on the H1 timeframe, where I find the dynamics over the past sessions to be quite intriguing. I see that after a period of sustained selling pressure at the week's start, the pair appears to have broken out of its narrow consolidation range, and I now interpret the charts as showing signs of renewed strength. I note that the latest price is hovering around 1.3353, and I have observed the daily range fluctuating between the open at 1.3340 and a high of 1.3356. Although I consider this upward movement to be moderate so far, I am particularly focused on the candlestick structure, which reveals to me a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows; this signals a short-term shift towards a bullish trend in my view. I pinpoint the beginning of this upward momentum to the 24th of October, when I saw the price resist further declines below 1.3340 and then close with a long-bodied bullish candle, an event I interpreted as confirming a significant surge in buying interest. I have identified the 1.3330–1.3340 zone as a critical support area now, as I see it consistently containing intraday pullbacks, while I am looking towards the 1.3365 to 1.3380 zone as the nearest significant resistance. I am especially encouraged by the latest candlestick, which shows an extended upper body and a very short lower wick; this tells me that selling pressure is fading and that buyers are gradually gaining control. This price action reinforces my belief that confidence is growing among market participants after what I had previously assessed as several sessions of frustrating sideways consolidation.
