FX.co ★ EUR/USD

UR/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart of the EUR/USD pair, the price is seen moving in a medium-term downtrend after failing to break through strong resistance areas around 1.1728 and 1.1779. This decline is further confirmed by the position of the 100-EMA (blue line) below the 200-EMA (red line), indicating that selling pressure remains dominant in the market structure. This pattern indicates that bearish sentiment remains quite strong despite a consolidation phase in recent sessions. The price movement, which briefly attempted to rise to the 1.1650–1.1670 area, was held back by the 200-EMA, which now acts as dynamic resistance. The failure to break through this area indicates that market participants are not yet confident enough to push EUR/USD into a bullish phase. The sharp decline in the last candlestick confirms the return of selling pressure, especially after the price broke through the 1.1610 level, which had previously served as minor support. The nearest support is currently around 1.1599, which is a key point for short-term movement. If this level is successfully broken through decisively, the price will likely continue its decline towards 1.1542. This area represents strong support that has repeatedly held back selling pressure since mid-October, making it a potential next target for bears. Conversely, if a rebound occurs from this area, the potential for a pullback towards 1.1650–1.1670 remains open.

Technically, price momentum is showing a weakening trend after a series of gains that failed to break through the dynamic resistance of the 200-day moving average (EMA). This indicates that the medium-term bearish trend remains valid, as long as the price moves below the 1.1728 area. Meanwhile, volume and volatility indicate strengthening sellers, strengthening the potential for a further correction towards the lower support area. From a price action perspective, the pattern formed tends to show lower highs and lower lows, a key characteristic of a downtrend. To strengthen the directional bias, traders are advised to monitor the price reaction in the 1.1599 area. A clear break below this level could signal a continuation of the downtrend, while a strong bounce above it could signal a consolidation phase or a potential temporary reversal towards the EMA resistance. Overall, EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, with a weakening trend towards 1.1542, as long as the price remains below 1.1670. A more prudent strategy at this point would be to wait for directional confirmation around key support levels before taking new positions.