FX.co ★ USD/JPY

USDJPY continues to frustrate traders as the pair fails to provide the clean directional structure needed for confident positioning, and USDJPY remains stuck in indecisive behavior. USDJPY pulled back from 153.25, yet the decline was shallow and lacked the typical depth required to create a compelling bullish corrective setup, leaving USDJPY without a logical support test for long participation. USDJPY likewise failed to resume upward momentum toward the 153 pattern area, where renewed selling would have been appealing, showing that neither bullish nor bearish scenarios are being validated. USDJPY instead has been confined to a sticky sideways pattern between 151.88 and 152.35, a range too narrow and noisy for reliable trade construction. USDJPY briefly reacted during the Asian session with sharp moves, though stop-losses were narrowly missed by only a few pips before the pair returned upward, offering little technical clarity. USDJPY now trades near 152.28, while the Fed interest rate decision and subsequent FOMC press conference have injected volatility without resolving directional bias. USDJPY reflects positioning roughly balanced with 55% short and 45% long, suggesting neutral sentiment consistent with its current structure. USDJPY pushed higher following the press conference, approaching 153.26, where a potential “Three-Touch Rule” could allow bears to fade the level and target the 151.50 support. USDJPY alternatively may attempt to break the 153.26 barrier, which opens the path toward the 154.14 weekly resistance zone, but such upside requires clear confirmation. USDJPY continues to trade against the backdrop of a broader bearish bias in the US dollar index, suggesting upside may be limited. USDJPY also carries an unfilled gap near 147.54, supporting the idea that medium-term downside remains feasible. USDJPY technicals still suggest that selling rallies is the priority, with more compelling price action likely needed before long positioning becomes justified.

USDJPY remains capped beneath 153.09, where repeated touches have triggered downside reactions that reinforce resistance. USDJPY may decline toward 149.90 support if sellers maintain pressure and the pair closes below 152.00, a key structural boundary. USDJPY, if it breaks above 153.09 with conviction, could stretch toward 158.00 and potentially print fresh highs, though that remains a lower-probability scenario until resistance is cleared. USDJPY recently challenged the October 10 high at 153.27 but failed to test or break it, strengthening the argument for near-term weakness. USDJPY dropped only modestly to 151.54, which is insufficient to form a complete bullish zigzag structure that would justify further upside, leaving directional risk tilted lower. USDJPY therefore still appears vulnerable to deeper correction, especially if price cannot reclaim and consolidate above the 153 handle. USDJPY sentiment currently favors selling strength as traders await a clean breakout to confirm renewed directional conviction. USDJPY is unlikely to break the 153 figure decisively without a more meaningful corrective leg that resets order flow and encourages renewed accumulation. USDJPY remains technically congested, and until the pair runs liquidity at either 151.50 or 153.25, larger moves are unlikely. USDJPY therefore demands patience, since premature positioning risks being trapped in its tight and indecisive range. USDJPY traders may find opportunity only after a structural washout—either a liquidity raid above 153.25 or a flush into the 151.00–150.00 zone—creates a clear reaction level. USDJPY retains the potential for deeper selling in line with the broader context, yet the lack of momentum confirms that traders should wait for sharper signals. USDJPY will likely remain directionally muted until key levels are reclaimed or broken, at which point clarity should return.