Technical analysis 30 October 2025 EUR/USD H-1 
The upward wave structure has clearly broken here, with the MACD indicator moving into the lower sell zone and, as you can see, falling below its signal line. Considering long trades now is not advisable. There are compelling reasons to support a decline.
Key Observations: * Breakdown and Retest: The most important feature on this chart is the horizontal price zone at 1.1620 - 1.1625 (purple lines). * . * Yesterday (Oct 29), the price crashed below this support, hitting a low near 1.1585. * The current price action at 1.1617 is a pullback retesting this broken support level from below. This level is now expected to act as new resistance. *
Bearish Momentum (RSI): The RSI (14) is at 44.45. Because this reading is below the 50 midline, it confirms that the market momentum has shifted and is now bearish. *
Bearish Trend (MACD): The MACD (12, 26, 9) is in negative territory (-0.00097). The MACD line is below its red signal line, and the histogram is negative. This confirms that the short-term trend is to the downside.
Conclusion: The bullish trend is over. The price is now in a new bearish phase, pulling back to a strong resistance point before a potential next move down. *
Outlook: Bearish. * Key Resistance: The 1.1620 - 1.1625 zone is the critical level to watch. As long as the price stays below this zone, the bearish outlook is valid. *
Potential Target: A rejection from this resistance would likely lead to a retest of yesterdays lows around 1.1585. *
Invalidation: The bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price manages to decisively break back above 1.1625, which would signal "a "failed breakdown." The pullback reached the 50% correction level of the decline, and simultaneously tested the previously broken rising line forming a rising wedge. The last price increase was the second pullback wave before the third downward wave. I see no reason against this scenario, although there was a temporary delay with some upward pullback in the second half. I think the price decline will resume as early as Wednesday, especially since the interest rate is being released again.
