FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair's movement shows a primary trend that remains bearish, with the price moving below two Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators—the 100 EMA (blue) and the 200 EMA (red). The consistent position of the price below these two EMAs indicates that selling momentum remains dominant in the medium term. Although there is currently an upward correction attempt, the overall market structure still indicates a downtrend. In terms of price structure, EUR/USD appears to have recently rebounded from a strong support area around 1.1469, which serves as a key lower boundary. Buying reaction in this area was quite significant, as evidenced by several consecutive bullish candlesticks that pushed the price up, breaking through 1.1528 and approaching the minor resistance zone around 1.1550–1.1570. However, after touching the 100 EMA, upward momentum began to weaken, indicating a potential correction or continuation of the downtrend. If selling pressure increases again, the 1.1528 area will be a key zone to watch. A break below this level could open the door for EUR/USD to retest the strong support level of 1.1469. If this support is decisively broken, the next downside target will be the psychological area of 1.1400 or even lower.

Conversely, if buying momentum can penetrate the 1.1570 zone and hold above it, further upside towards the next resistance area at 1.1728 could be possible. However, given that the 100- and 200-EMAs remain above the price and have not yet shown any signs of a golden cross, this upside opportunity remains limited and likely represents a technical retracement within the medium-term downtrend. Overall, the EUR/USD technical bias on the H4 timeframe remains negative as long as the price remains below the 1.1600–1.1650 area. A more conservative strategy for traders is to wait for candlestick confirmation around the EMA area to determine the price's future direction. The potential for selling on rallies remains more relevant as long as the trend hasn't structurally reversed, while buying opportunities can only be considered if the price is able to break through and stay above the 200 EMA with strong volume.