FX.co ★ AUD/USD

AUD/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD price movement shows a medium-term weakening trend after failing to maintain the bullish momentum established in late October. The price is currently moving around the 0.6515 area, with a sideways trend within a fairly wide range between the strong support level of 0.6440 and the main resistance at 0.6573. This market structure indicates a consolidation phase following significant selling pressure since early November. From a moving average perspective, there are two important lines: the 100-day moving average (EMA) and the 200-day moving average (EMA) (red). Both EMAs are currently above the price, and the 100-day moving average (EMA) is also below the 200-day moving average (EMA). This condition confirms that the main trend remains bearish. Any temporary increase can be considered a retracement or pullback, rather than a permanent trend reversal, as long as the price is unable to break above the 0.6573 area and remain consistently above the 200-day moving average (EMA). The 0.6491 level is a key short-term support level currently being tested. If selling pressure intensifies and the price breaks through this level, a decline towards 0.6440 will be highly likely. This area serves as psychological support and previously served as a price rebound point in mid-October. Conversely, if the price breaks through the minor resistance at 0.6540–0.6573, short-term bullish momentum could form and push the price towards the next resistance at 0.6618.

From a price action perspective, the last candlestick formation indicates an attempted rebound from the lower support area, although selling pressure still looms. Volume has decreased relatively, indicating the market is seeking a new direction after a sharp correction. Traders are advised to monitor price reactions in the 100- and 200-EMA areas for confirmation of the next direction. Overall, the technical outlook for AUD/USD remains negative as long as the price moves below 0.6573. The bearish scenario remains dominant, with the potential for a continued decline towards 0.6440 if the 0.6491 support is breached. However, if the price manages to break through and maintain above the 0.6573 area, the opportunity for a change in direction to a medium-term uptrend is opening. It is recommended to continue monitoring price dynamics and confirmation from additional technical indicators before taking a position.