GBP/USD H4 Timeframe: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the currency pair has exhibited a relatively strong bearish trend in recent weeks. Sustained selling pressure was evident after the price failed to break through the key resistance area around 1.3471 and then continued to weaken until it broke through several key support levels. Currently, the price is moving around the 1.3110–1.3120 area, which is close to the minor support level at 1.3095. The resulting price structure shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating continued seller dominance. The two moving averages used on this chart, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line), provide further confirmation of the ongoing bearish trend. The prices position below both moving averages indicates that medium- to long-term momentum is still tending downward. Furthermore, the relatively wide distance between the two moving averages suggests there are no signs of a potential reversal or convergence that could indicate a trend shift in the near future. The 100-day moving average (MA) is also below the 200-day moving average (MA), confirming a death cross signal, which is intensifying selling pressure.
In terms of support and resistance structure, the 1.3095 area is a crucial point to watch. If the price breaks through this level with strong selling pressure, GBP/USD will likely continue its decline towards the next support area around 1.3010. This level represents the lower limit of the previous consolidation area and has the potential to become a short-term target for market participants taking short positions. Conversely, if the price manages to stay above 1.3095 and shows a bullish reaction, a temporary rebound towards the 1.3247 resistance area is possible. This level also coincides with the 100-day moving average (MA), which has the potential to pose a strong barrier to price increases. Overall technical momentum still supports a bearish outlook. Any price increases tend to be corrective and are used by market participants to seek sell positions at higher levels. The candlestick structure also continues to show long upper shadows, indicating selling pressure every time the price attempts to move upwards. In a broader context, this trend is also in line with the continued strengthening of the US dollar amid expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. Overall, as long as GBP/USD remains below 1.3247 and has not broken above the 100-day moving average (MA), the technical bias remains negative. Further weakness towards 1.3095 and 1.3010 remains possible. However, if the daily closing price occurs above 1.3247, a shift in momentum towards a deeper correction is likely. For now, a more prudent strategy is to follow the main trend, focusing on sell-on-rally opportunities at the nearest resistance area.
