FX.co ★ AUD/USD

AUD/USD H4 Timeframe: Based on the AUD/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, price movement shows signs of recovery after experiencing strong selling pressure in late October to early November. Currently, the price is moving in the 0.6550–0.6560 range and is testing the key resistance area at 0.6573. The price structure has shown a pattern of higher lows and higher highs in the last few sessions, indicating a potential medium-term reversal from a bearish trend to a neutral or even bullish trend if the strengthening momentum can continue. Two moving average indicators, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line), are important components of this technical reading. Previously, the price moved consistently below both MAs, indicating a strong downtrend. However, in the most recent movement, the price managed to break above both MA lines, particularly after a stable candle closing above the 100-day moving average (MA). This condition signals an early potential trend change, although stronger confirmation will only occur if the price can convincingly break through the 0.6573 resistance. If this occurs, the next upside target will be in the 0.6618 to 0.6708 area, which was the main resistance zone from the previous price movement.

Meanwhile, in terms of support, the 0.6491 area is a crucial lower boundary that can serve as a reference in the event of a correction. This level is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA), which is now starting to turn upward. As long as the price remains above this level, the technical bias will remain positive. However, if the price falls below 0.6491 again, the potential for weakness towards the 0.6440 area will reopen, indicating a resumption of the medium-term bearish trend. Overall, the bullish momentum that is starting to form in AUD/USD is also supported by increased appetite for riskier assets, amidst a weakening US dollar due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates for longer without additional hikes. This provides room for commodity currencies like the Australian dollar to strengthen. However, it is important to note that the current technical structure is still in the early stages of forming a new trend, so the potential for volatility remains high. In conclusion, as long as the price remains above 0.6520 and breaks through the resistance at 0.6573, AUD/USD has the potential to continue strengthening towards 0.6618 and then 0.6708. Conversely, failure to break through this level and a drop below 0.6491 will reinvigorate selling pressure and signal the continuation of the bearish trend.