FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe Based on the EUR/USD H4 timeframe chart shown, the current price movement shows consolidation dynamics after experiencing quite strong bearish pressure since mid-October. The main trend remains down, as illustrated by the position of the blue 100-day Moving Average (MA), which is below the red 200-day MA, indicating that medium- to long-term momentum is still dominated by sellers. However, there are early signs of a potential correction or the formation of a technical retracement phase towards the nearest resistance area. The price is currently moving around 1.1580, attempting to break through the 100-day MA, which acts as dynamic resistance. If buying pressure can maintain momentum above this level, the opportunity for an increase towards strong resistance at 1.1728 is wide open. This level also coincides with the price consolidation area at the end of September, making it an important psychological zone for buyers. Above it, the next resistance levels are at 1.1779 and 1.1849, which could become further targets if the corrective trend continues. Conversely, if the price fails to break through the 100-day moving average (MA) and instead weakens below 1.1528, selling pressure will likely reignite. This area serves as key support, having been tested several times in early November. If this level is significantly breached, EUR/USD has the potential to continue its downtrend toward 1.1469, the next key support level and the basis for the formation of the previous swing low.

In terms of price structure, the resulting pattern resembles a minor reversal in the form of a double bottom, indicating a temporary reversal of bearish pressure. However, confirmation of this pattern will only be valid if the price manages to break through and maintain above the 1.1650–1.1700 area. Until that occurs, the potential rebound remains purely a technical retracement. Overall, short-term market sentiment towards EUR/USD is neutral-positive, with an upward corrective bias as long as the price remains above 1.1528. However, the medium-term trend remains bearish as the price remains below the 200-day moving average (MA). Traders should monitor the price reaction around the 1.1580–1.1650 area to determine the next direction, whether a correction will continue towards the main resistance or a resumption of the downtrend towards the lower support.