FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD H4 Timeframe: The H4 EUR/USD chart shows that the price structure remains in a medium-term bearish trend. This can be observed from the price moving below the two main moving averages: the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red line). When the price consistently remains below these two moving averages, the dominant trend usually signals further weakness, especially if the MAs are also sloping downwards. In this context, the 100-day moving average (MA) is moving below the 200-day moving average (MA), confirming that bearish momentum remains stronger than the potential for a medium-term recovery. Horizontal support and resistance levels also provide a clearer picture. At the bottom of the chart, the 1.1469 level appears to be key support that has served as the basis for price movements in the past. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance is located at 1.1530, which is currently being retested from below after breaking through it. At the last moment on the chart, the price appears to have risen slightly towards the 1.1530 area, but has not yet demonstrated a strong breakout. This condition often occurs in the form of a pullback, where the price tests a support-turned-resistance level before continuing its decline. Meanwhile, the resistance areas above, namely 1.1669 and 1.1729, are still quite distant and likely won't be a major concern until the price returns above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). As long as these two MAs continue to exert upward pressure on the price, the bearish bias will remain dominant. Furthermore, the last few candlesticks have shown quite strong selling pressure, reflected in the solid bearish closing candles and relatively long upper tails, indicating resistance from market participants as the price attempts to rise.

From a price action perspective, the market structure shows a series of consecutive lower highs and lower lows, supporting the view that buyers are still not strong enough to reverse the trend. Even when an uptrend occurs, it tends to be only a temporary retracement before the next decline. If the price fails to break through the 1.1530 level and is decisively rejected, the potential for a decline towards the 1.1469 area is wide open. This level is also important to monitor, as a breach would open up further downside. Meanwhile, a bullish scenario will only begin to gain traction if the price can regain ground above 1.1580 and then break through the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Overall, EUR/USD technical sentiment on the 4-hour chart remains negative. Bears dominate the market structure, moving averages support the downtrend, and the current pullback appears to be more of a pause before the next decline. Trend-following traders will likely focus more on seeking selling opportunities at nearby resistance areas as long as invalidation has not occurred.