USD/JPY Technical Analysis Here’s a breakdown of the current technical picture for USD/JPY, with key levels, trend context, and what to watch —
not a recommendation, just an analysis.
✅ Trend & Momentum On the daily and weekly charts, indicators and moving averages point to a
bullish bias: for example, one provider shows a “Strong Buy” on daily timeframe. The up-move from ~139.87 (2024 low) appears to be extending. Key momentum indicators: RSI around ~46 (neutral) but Stochastic showing sell signals and MACD slight bearish divergence.
???? Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance: Around ~158.85 is noted as a “key structural resistance” in the near term. Further out, projection towards ~160.17 (161.8% Fibonacci from 146.58→153.26) is flagged.
Support: On the downside, ~155.20-155.72 acts as minor support before bias shifts. A deeper level of support ~149.37 is mentioned — a break below this would weaken the bullish case.
???? Technical Patterns & Observations The trend channel from the 139.87 low was broken upward, suggesting
acceleration of the move. However, there are
bearish divergences in shorter timeframes (like 4-hour MACD), which warn of possible short-term pullbacks. The rally is seen as part of a larger trend continuation, but caution flags remain if key supports fail.
???? What to Watch / Possible Scenarios Bullish scenario (favoured): If USD/JPY breaks above ~158.85 decisively, next target ~160.00+ comes into view (→ ~160.17 projection). As long as supports hold (~155.20-155.72), bullish momentum is likely to remain intact.
Bearish or corrective scenario: If price falls below ~155.20 and especially breaks below ~149.37, the bias could shift and a deeper pullback may unfold. Short-term divergence signals suggest caution: a pullback before resumption of trend is plausible.
???? My Summary USD/JPY currently sits in a bullish structure with momentum on its side, but there is short-term caution due to divergence and overextension. The key resistance to watch is ~158.85; support to defend is ~155.20-155.72 (with a major break of ~149.37 weakening the entire uptrend). If youre trading this pair, you may consider: Looking for long opportunities on pullbacks into strong support zone (if it holds) Being cautious of entries near resistance unless the breakout is clean Monitoring divergence and momentum shifts for signs of reversal Would you like me to pull up
intraday (4-hour/1-hour) charts or upcoming event risks that could affect USD/JPY?
