FX.co ★ USD/JPY

I see the USD/JPY pair moving within a complex and uncertain structure, and I believe the market is currently struggling to establish a clear long-term direction. I notice that despite the broader bullish trend that has dominated for months, I am now observing hesitation, with price failing to maintain momentum above major psychological and technical barriers. I interpret the recent inability to hold above the 100-hour SMA and the repeated failures around the 155.40–156.00 region as early signs that buyers may be losing strength. I also recognize that the break below the 155.00 psychological mark aligns with growing bearish pressure, especially as the yen remains fundamentally supported by expectations of additional Bank of Japan tightening. I understand that the dovish expectations toward the Federal Reserve continue to weigh on the dollar, adding fuel to the downside narrative. I see the H1 chart showing a fully developed downward swing, followed by a symmetrical pullback, which I interpret as a corrective move inside a broader bearish wave. I observe divergence forming in the oversold zone, but I believe such divergence may indicate only a short-term consolidation rather than a strong directional reversal. I note that the ZigZag fluctuations of 600–700 points this week create a choppy environment that makes clear entries risky. I acknowledge that several indicators, including the Boa(50) and the Grail Indicator, advise caution and suggest waiting for a confirmed breakout before entering the market. I consider the expanding triangle scenario possible, especially given the wide liquidity pools above and below current price, and I expect the market may attempt to sweep both sides before choosing a definitive direction. I see potential intraday support near 154.50 and deeper at 154.00, and I believe breaking these levels could accelerate bearish movement. I also think that upside attempts toward 155.40, 155.98, or even 156.35 may represent liquidity grabs rather than sustained rallies unless backed by strong volume.

I further analyze that the long-term picture remains clouded by macroeconomic crosswinds, and I recognize that US PCE data may determine whether the dollar regains strength or continues weakening. I see that technically, buyers must overcome the critical resistance zone around 156.60–156.86 to reestablish bullish dominance. I believe that only a sustained breakout above these levels will reopen the pathway toward 157.00 and beyond. I also emphasize that failure to do so, especially if accompanied by weak volume, increases the probability of a deeper retracement. I view the 155.11 level as an essential confirmation point, where consolidation below it would suggest a weakening bullish trend and open the road toward 154.62 and possibly lower. I interpret liquidity distribution near 155.18 and 156.72 as areas where the market may attempt sharp manipulation, meaning both buying and selling traps are likely. I understand that if buyers cannot protect the 154.62 level, the expanding-triangle structure could produce strong downward momentum, potentially leading to a larger corrective phase. I also recognize that the global trendline remains supportive, but I believe it will lose relevance if price repeatedly tests it without a strong recovery. I conclude that when the market presents such mixed signals—bullish long-term structure, bearish short-term momentum, unclear liquidity map, and fundamental uncertainty—the safest approach is patience. I therefore maintain that waiting for a clean break either above the higher resistance levels or below the stronger support zones is the most logical action. I expect that within a week, the pair will reveal whether it intends to extend the bullish trend with a breakout or deepen the pullback with a reversal.