I am closely observing the USDCAD H1 chart, and I am noting that the pair exhibited a distinctly flat and range-bound price action throughout the beginning and middle of this trading week. I am interpreting this consolidation as a period of market indecision, where neither bulls nor bears could establish clear dominance. I can see that this equilibrium was decisively broken on Friday, triggered by the release of robust Canadian employment figures, which catalyzed a sharp decline in the pair. I am now looking at a chart where the price has fallen significantly below the Boa(50) indicator, which I consider a key dynamic moving average. I perceive this widening gap between the indicator and the price as a strong signal of burgeoning downward momentum, suggesting the sellers have taken firm control following the fundamental catalyst
Given this technical configuration, I believe the most optimal trading decision for my strategy is to prepare for a sell position, aligning myself with the newly established downward trajectory. However, I am also a disciplined trader, so I must impose a crucial condition for my entry: I will only execute this sell order if Monday’s session does not produce a significant retracement upward. Specifically, I am watching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the recent swing; I am convinced that a pullback to this zone would invalidate an immediate sell entry. Should such a pullback occur, I will consciously choose to step back and adopt a patient wait-and-see approach. I am resolved not to force any trades, either long or short, amidst a potential counter-trend correction, as I recognize that could lead to emotional and poorly timed decisions. I plan to wait for the market to provide clearer confirmation of its next directional bias. I intend to monitor the price’s interaction with the Boa(50) line meticulously, as I need to see it achieve a stable position either definitively above or below that level after any retracement concludes. Furthermore, I am awaiting a specific signal from my Grail Indicator, which I use for confirmation; I require it to display its distinctive yellow icon at a confirmed fractal high or low. Only when these conditions converge—a rejection at the Boa(50), a corresponding fractal structure, and the Grail’s icon—will I feel confident that it is time to formally execute either a new sell or a potential buy position, depending on the direction of the breakout. Until that moment of confluence, I am maintaining a stance of vigilant observation, prioritizing the preservation of my capital over the pursuit of uncertain opportunities.
