FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

GOLD H4 TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS On the H4 chart, gold (XAU/USD) is exhibiting a phase of consolidation within a broader corrective downtrend, following its rejection from the recent highs above $4310. The current price action shows the metal trading at 4192.78, having found a temporary base after a significant decline from the late November peak. The price is now caught between the immediate resistance near 4195.28 and support around 4189.21. A critical observation is that the price remains below the MA(10), which is not shown on the snippet but would likely be acting as dynamic resistance above the current price, reinforcing the near-term bearish bias. The market structure has transitioned from bullish to corrective, with lower highs and lower lows being established on this timeframe. Technically, the momentum indicators reflect this loss of bullish impetus. The RSI(14) at 46.52 is in neutral territory but tilted bearishly, indicating a lack of buying momentum. More significantly, the MACD is in negative territory at -1.443, with its histogram below the zero line, confirming the prevailing downward momentum. The price has recently breached the horizontal support zone around 4189-4195; a sustained break below could accelerate a move towards the next key support levels near 4131.10 and 4071.40. The volume profile on the decline suggests the selling pressure has been substantive. Fundamentally, gold is being tugged in opposite directions. Hawkish rhetoric from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve's commitment to higher-for-longer interest rates, has strengthened the US Dollar and increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, applying persistent downward pressure. However, these losses are being cushioned by persistent geopolitical tensions and recessionary fears, which bolster gold's traditional safe-haven appeal. This conflict is manifesting in the choppy, range-bound price action seen on the H4 chart.

TRADE SETUP & SUMMARY · Bias: Bearish below MA(10) and key resistance. · Key Resistance: 4195.28 (Recent High), 4250.50 (Previous Swing High). · Key Support: 4189.21 (Recent Low/Session Low), 4131.10, 4071.40. · Trade Idea: A confirmed break and close below 4189.21 could offer a short entry opportunity, targeting 4131.10, with a stop loss placed above 4195.28. Alternatively, a bullish reversal would require a sustained break back above 4195.28 and the MA(10) to negate the immediate downside momentum. · Summary: Gold's H4 chart points to a continuation of the corrective phase within a volatile macro environment. The technical structure and indicator alignment favor further downside exploration unless a decisive bullish reversal above key resistance occurs. Traders should watch for a break of the immediate 4189-4195 range for the next directional cue.