FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

I see gold still lingering inside the well-defined 4170–4250 range, and I believe the market will likely remain indecisive until Wednesday, when the Fed rate decision injects real momentum into price action. I notice how gold recently rebounded from the lower boundary near 4176, and I interpret that reaction as evidence of steady demand and unwillingness from the market to break fresh lows. I observe the MACD forming a buy signal, and I interpret this as a possible trigger for another upward wave inside the existing structure. I pay close attention to the candlestick behavior at support, and I see long lower shadows that tell me buyers are aggressively absorbing declines. I recognize that if this momentum continues, gold could easily retest the upper boundary near 4258, where I see local resistance. I remain mindful that the long-term trend is still upward, and I acknowledge that expectations of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic uncertainty still support gold as a safe-haven asset. I understand that low real rates further stimulate bullish interest, but I also accept that a sudden strengthening of the dollar or a shift in sentiment could quickly interrupt this upward trajectory. I also recognize the possibility of a corrective move, especially since the rally has been strong and natural profit-taking often emerges before major news events. I currently observe price trading below the weekly balance level of 4208 and breaking beneath the MA50, and I interpret this as a sign of weakening buying pressure. I see that as long as gold trades under 4208, sellers maintain the local advantage, and I consider the 4180 level crucial—its break may open the path toward deeper correction.

I also remain cautious about bullish expectations because I think the optimism around an imminent rate cut is largely speculative, and I believe the market could easily be disappointed. I note that discussions about a potential peace deal are also supporting the dollar, and I understand that this environment limits gold’s upside potential. I see silver already trading near its highs, and I interpret that as a sign that gold may struggle to extend a major rally from current levels. I consider the recent decline between 4218.80 and 4176.11 as evidence that downward pressure is not yet exhausted. I find it unwise to anticipate a strong bullish wave when the price has not yet touched the major moving average near the 4115 support zone. I think even a move toward 4150 could justify fresh selling if market conditions align. I observe that the latest upward bounce lacks reliability, especially as the M15 chart shows price declining from 4195.42 and leaving behind a soft plateau that could serve as a base for further downside. I acknowledge that Monday’s bearish close reinforces the corrective scenario, even though I still anticipate a potential rise later. I identify downward Fibonacci targets: 4123 at 161.8%, 4040 at 261.8%, and 3901 at 423.6%, and I treat them as objective technical levels. I conclude that only a confident break above 4260 will invalidate the bearish outlook and restore a convincing bullish structure.