FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I am observing that today the wide bullish channel marked by the white lines was broken to the upside, and I am now shifting my full focus to the newly formed bullish channel outlined with the dashed structure. I am expecting that price will eventually begin declining from the upper boundary of this new channel, because I see it as an inefficient expansion zone that typically rejects price on first contact. I am outlining the first necessary step as a decline to the 1.16500 region, where I expect a breakout beneath the lower boundary of the bullish channel to confirm bearish pressure. I am then expecting continuation of the decline toward support at 1.15948, and I am also considering the possibility of a deeper move into the 1.15698–1.15519 range if momentum strengthens. I anticipate that after this bearish impulsive leg, price might stage a technical pullback toward the broken bullish channel, which I see as a classic retest structure. I believe that after this retest the decline should resume, aiming to challenge the previous low near 1.14685. I am also paying attention to the fundamental backdrop: after the release of the Fed interest rate decision and Powell’s comments, I noticed markets reacting with euro strength, and I am recognizing that an uptrend is evolving on the daily timeframe. I am acknowledging that the MACD histogram has returned into positive territory and the signal line is pushing north, giving the bulls short-term technical control. I am aware that these factors increase the odds of a rise through the 1.1912 level, yet I remain cautious given the broader macro pressures. I am also tracking the Fibonacci-based intraday targets: I saw Thursday close with a bullish candle at 1.1740, and the 161.8 and 261.8 levels at 1.1684 and 1.1723 have already been met. I am now watching the 423.6 target at 1.1792, which I consider reachable. I am currently selling, and I acknowledge I am in drawdown, but I plan to intensify my sell positions if price reaches that third Fibonacci extension. I maintain that the key downside trigger remains the breakout of 1.1615 support, which I expect may activate once bullish exhaustion appears.

I continue to view EURUSD as structurally bearish in the broader context because QT has begun, and I believe this supports the dollar fundamentally as long as inflation remains under control. I am observing that inflation in the US has not surged beyond expectations, while Europe appears far more vulnerable, which I think strengthens the bearish narrative for EURUSD. I am noting that although Thursday closed with a bullish candle, I do not believe this will materially shift the medium-term trajectory due to geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures. I am also watching political tensions—such as Ursula von der Leyen’s confrontational stance toward Trump—which I think could potentially trigger volatility that favors dollar strength if risk-off sentiment expands. I see Asian session traders applying pressure at today’s open, and I believe that this aligns well with my bearish expectations. I am monitoring the balance-area behavior and identifying that pushing price to 1.1616 would generate a clear sell signal, which I fully intend to follow. I am convinced that bulls have once again run out of strength because they were previously unable to break higher highs or even attack the nearest extreme with conviction. I therefore maintain a strong short-term and long-term bearish idea, especially once price hovers around and breaches 1.1616. I believe the bears only need to break 1.1682 to gain stronger momentum, and I am patiently waiting for my broader analysis to manifest. I continue to view a move south as more realistic than another attempt toward 1.1900, a level the bulls previously failed to reach decisively. I am also watching how support zones shift: yesterday I saw support near 1.166 for the expiring contract, and as EURUSD rose intraday, support lifted slightly, but the likely lows did not change. I am marking the strong zone at 1.171–1.167 and the additional 1.177 level, which is both new support and the immediate upward target. I was planning to sell from 1.177, and I acknowledge that I narrowly missed that entry. I remain positioned for the southward move, and I expect that once the technicals align with the fundamentals, the bearish wave will unfold.