I am analyzing the USD/CHF pair on the H1 timeframe and I note that the price is currently trading above the daily opening level at 0.7915, which already gives me a short-term bullish bias for this session. I also observe that the pair is holding above the daily Pivot level at 0.7904, and I interpret this as confirmation that buyers are still controlling the intraday structure. I see that the main technical indicators are pointing north, and I consider this alignment as supportive of a corrective upward move rather than a continuation of the previous decline. I am paying close attention to the fact that the price is trading above the MA72 trend line, because I know from experience that this zone often attracts profit-taking and volume unloading, which can temporarily slow momentum. I believe that if the price manages to firmly break and hold above the key intraday level of 0.7941, I will likely see an extension toward 0.7950 as the first logical resistance. I further expect that sustained buying pressure above 0.7950 could open the path toward the next upside target near 0.7965, where sellers may again become more active. I also acknowledge that if the price fails to stay above 0.7941, I would expect a renewed decline back toward the daily opening level at 0.7915. I consider a deeper pullback toward 0.7904 quite realistic in that bearish scenario, as this level coincides with the daily and weekly Pivot and often acts as a magnet for price. I am factoring in that the pair remains below the monthly Pivot level at 0.8010, previously noted near 0.7997, and I see this as a clear sign that the broader trend pressure is still bearish. I recognize that trading above the weekly and daily Pivot levels while remaining below the monthly Pivot reflects a strong corrective sentiment rather than a full trend reversal. I identify the key decision point of this session as the daily opening level at 0.7915, and I view 0.7950 as the first meaningful resistance and 0.7915 as the first critical support. I conclude that price behavior around these levels will define the tone of the session, and I approach the market with cautious optimism and disciplined risk management as the new year begins.
I am looking at USD/CHF from the daily chart highs using a wave-based approach, and I like the metaphor of replacing the instrument with a fork and a knife, because I also want to carefully cut out my own piece of this market pie for good luck and discipline. I note that the pair tried to enter the New Year by consolidating above resistance formed by the lower boundary of an overhanging sideways range, and I interpret this behavior as an initial attempt by buyers to regain control. I am inclined to believe that this consolidation effort increases the probability of further movement to the north, at least in the short-term wave structure. I also observe that MA100 is still sloping downward at a relatively modest angle of around 10 degrees, and I read this as a signal that the broader daily trend pressure remains bearish. I sense that the overall weekly mood still carries a clear sell-off character, even if price occasionally attempts corrective rebounds. I am paying special attention to MA18, because I see that it has crossed the key moving average from top to bottom, forming a classic dead cross, and I treat this as a strong technical sell signal. I recognize that this lighter moving average is accelerating to the downside with a steep angle close to 40 degrees, and I understand this as evidence of increasing bearish momentum. I am also analyzing the Ichimoku Cloud, which is currently painted in bullish colors, and I acknowledge that this may confuse less patient traders. I believe, however, that the forward projection of the cloud suggests a reversal toward bearish dominance, and I notice that it is already trending downward at a sharp forty-degree angle, step by step reinforcing the decline scenario. I continue to monitor the basement indicator clusters, and I see that the oversold zone is still not fully developed, which tells me that sellers likely still have room to push the market lower. I therefore expect that the probability of a southward continuation remains elevated despite short-term bullish attempts. I define the current working price limits within the 0.7950–0.7915 range, and I treat this zone as a battlefield between corrective buyers and trend-following sellers. I remain cautious, focused, and selective, because I know that only disciplined execution will allow me to cut my slice of profit cleanly as the new year trading rhythm begins.
