I see the current USD/JPY structure as a very telling example of how volume and crowd positioning interact at key technical levels, and I note that the price has clearly rebounded from the 156.90 volume level, which acted as a barrier and prevented further upward movement for now. I consider 156.61 to be the most important level below the current price, and I think that if quotes decline into this zone and I begin to observe bullish signals forming from below, such as absorption or a slowdown in selling pressure, then I would expect a renewed northward move to develop from this area. I believe that in this scenario the upward move could unfold without a sharp rebound, instead manifesting as a smooth rise toward the lower boundary of the protected zone at 157.44, with the primary objective being a test of that level rather than an immediate breakout. I assume that if price reaches 157.44 and I see that this zone continues to act as resistance, then a southward move becomes the logical continuation, and I would expect the decline to develop from above that protected zone back toward the volume accumulation area around 156.26. I emphasize that when price approaches the 156.26 area, I would closely monitor both the chart structure and the behavior of volumes, because I believe this zone will reveal whether larger participants have unfinished business below. I think that if volume indicators suggest there is no significant liquidity interest beneath 156.26 for the so-called puppeteer, then I would anticipate a renewed push higher, potentially above the previously established highs, followed by a corrective decline toward the next volume accumulation zone at 155.93. I also take into account the USD/JPY order book, where I observe a dense cluster of unprofitable sellers positioned below the current price, and I interpret this as evidence that the majority expects an immediate decline. I believe that if this sentiment dominates, then price may only dip far enough to test a key lower level before reversing upward against the crowd, absorbing the growing liquidity above and once again reinforcing the broader range-based behavior of the market.
I see the USD/JPY H1 pair trading confidently above the daily opening level at 156.40 and above the daily Pivot level at 156.23, and I interpret this positioning as an early sign that buyers are still controlling the intraday structure. I note that the key indicators are pointing north, and I consider this alignment important because it confirms that the current move is not random but supported by technical momentum. I observe that the price is trading above the MA72 trend line, and I understand this area as a zone where volume unloading often takes place, which tells me that buyers have so far absorbed selling pressure successfully. I believe that as long as price remains above these reference levels, the market retains a corrective bullish tone rather than a fully bearish one. I identify 156.90 as the most critical level in the current session, and I treat it as a true fork in the road where directional clarity will emerge. I expect that if price manages to establish acceptance above 156.90, then the next logical upside objective will be 157.10, followed by a possible extension toward 157.40, where higher resistance and liquidity are likely to be located. I also acknowledge that if price fails to hold above 156.90, then a corrective decline becomes the dominant scenario, and I would look for a move down toward 156.60 as the first meaningful support. I further assume that a deeper pullback could extend toward 156.29 if selling pressure intensifies and buyers temporarily step aside. I take into account that USD/JPY is trading above the monthly Pivot level of 155.61, which I view as a strong medium-term support that reinforces the broader corrective structure. I recognize that price is also holding above the weekly Pivot level at 156.60 and above the daily Pivot, and I interpret this confluence as evidence that the market is not yet ready for a sustained bearish trend. I conclude that the overall sentiment remains corrective rather than impulsive, and I believe that price action around 156.90 will determine whether the pair rotates within the range or attempts another upward leg. I finish by noting that in this environment, I prefer to let price confirm direction at key levels rather than anticipate a breakout prematurely, especially given the range-bound conditions dominating the market.
