FX.co ★ USD/JPY

I am analyzing USD/JPY on the hourly timeframe, and I am noting that the price has once again reached the local seller’s range around 158.20, which I see as a technically important area where selling interest has previously appeared. I observe that after touching this level, the price is attempting to move lower, but I clearly see that this decline is occurring inside a strong buyer’s candle zone located between 157.83 and 157.37, and I consider this area to be a potential source of buying reactions. I think that as long as the price remains within this buyer-controlled range, I must account for the possibility that buyers will attempt to defend their positions aggressively. I see two main scenarios developing from this point, and I believe both require careful attention to price behavior and momentum. I consider the first scenario to be a strong buying reaction, where I would expect buyers to absorb selling pressure, push the price upward, and ultimately break the local high, which in my view would open the path toward a renewed test of the seller’s zone above. I recognize that such a move would signal temporary buyer dominance and could trap late sellers. I also consider the alternative scenario, where I would notice signs of buying weakness such as shallow pullbacks, weak bullish candles, or rapid rejection from intraday highs. I believe that if this weakness becomes evident, sellers will likely regain control and begin pressing the price lower again. I also acknowledge that sellers may not wait for a clear bullish attempt and could respond immediately with strong selling pressure if the market provides sufficient volume or bearish signals. I think that in such a case, the price would likely be driven back down toward the lower buying range between 156.73 and 156.43, which I see as the next logical downside target. I emphasize that I must closely monitor reactions, candle structure, and momentum shifts within these ranges, because I believe the interaction between buyers and sellers here will determine the short-term directional bias of USD/JPY.

I am analyzing the USD/JPY pair on the M15 timeframe, and I am beginning to clearly notice signs of a corrective movement developing after the recent price action. I am paying close attention to the marked levels on the chart, where I understand that the white levels represent important hourly zones, while I recognize the purple levels as strong and influential daily levels that tend to guide broader market direction. I am confident that the pair’s failure to break and hold above the strong daily resistance at 158.043 is a meaningful signal, and I interpret the subsequent bounce from this level as confirmation that sellers are still active there. I am considering whether the pair could now attempt to resume its upward movement by reacting from the 157.600 area, and I acknowledge that this scenario remains plausible because I see that higher timeframes continue to prioritize bullish continuation. I am aware, however, that higher-timeframe bias does not eliminate the probability of a deeper intraday correction, especially when strong resistance has already rejected price. I am therefore leaning toward the expectation of a further decline, and I am specifically watching the area around 187.174 as a potential corrective target, which I see as a reasonable zone for price to seek liquidity. I am also convinced that the market is unlikely to fall as deep as the strong daily support at 157.403, since I believe this level should remain protected under the current market structure. I am factoring in that corrections often unfold in stages rather than in a straight line, and I am prepared for volatility and false moves around intermediate levels. I have decided to shift my focus to the lower M5 timeframe because I want to react quickly to changing momentum and potential reversals as they form. I am using this lower timeframe to refine entries, manage risk more precisely, and adapt rapidly if the market confirms either renewed bullish intent or extended corrective pressure. I am ultimately focused on aligning short-term execution with higher-timeframe context while remaining flexible enough to reverse my bias if price behavior demands it.