I find myself analyzing the current technical situation, noting that my earlier prediction for a clear breakout above 1.1670 did not fully materialize. I observe that the pair only just grazed that level before pulling back, which tells me the resistance there was stronger than I initially anticipated. I am now watching the H1 chart closely, and I see the price action is currently at 1.16833 and demonstrating a clear downward corrective move. I interpret this as a sign that the bullish momentum I had hoped for has temporarily exhausted itself, leading to this period of consolidation and retracement
Furthermore, I am paying close attention to the InstaForex indicator you mentioned, and I see its signals are presenting a somewhat mixed picture that I need to decipher. I note that the first part shows a marginal bullish bias at 53.6%, which suggests to me that buyer interest hasn't completely vanished from the broader picture. However, I simultaneously recognize that the second part of the indicator is flashing a signal for a short-term downtrend, and I believe this aligns perfectly with the corrective price action I am witnessing on the chart. I am also factoring in the fundamental landscape for today, where I see a notably quiet European economic calendar. In contrast, I am anticipating a series of impactful releases from the United States, including jobless claims, GDP figures, and the core PCE price index. I consider the core PCE to be of particular importance, as it is the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, and I expect any surprise there to cause significant volatility. Synthesizing all this information—the failed breakout, the active correction, the indicator's short-term sell signal, and the potential for dollar-moving US data—I have reached a concrete conclusion for my trading outlook. I believe the pair will experience some fluctuations, likely as the market digests the American economic reports, but I am convinced the prevailing pressure will be to the downside. Therefore, I hold the view that after these oscillations, the EURUSD will ultimately gather enough bearish momentum to break through the support level at 1.1640. I wish everyone disciplined analysis and successful trades in today's market.
