I believe it was only a matter of time before USD/CHF finally escaped the prolonged sideways range on the daily timeframe, because I had been watching this consolidation since the summer and I knew that a 300-point range could not hold price indefinitely without producing a decisive breakout. I noticed that this week the pair confidently broke below the 0.7829 support level, and I clearly saw that the daily candle closed under this key minimum, which I interpret as an important technical signal that sellers are gaining control and that the bearish scenario is becoming more probable. I am now focusing my attention on the lower boundary of the monthly ATR zone at 0.7761–0.7733, because I consider this area to be the nearest realistic downside target and a potential place where I may expect either profit-taking or a temporary pause in the decline. I also remind myself that markets often behave unpredictably at the start of a new week, and I am aware that Monday quite frequently brings a reversal against the direction of the previous week, so I am preparing mentally for the possibility that price could attempt a corrective rebound before resuming any larger trend. I am paying special attention to the opening conditions, because I know from recent experience that the market may open with a gap, and I understand that such gaps often reflect strong sentiment shifts or reactions to weekend news that can immediately change the technical picture. I am carefully evaluating whether the breakout will be followed by healthy continuation or whether it may turn into a false breakdown, since I have seen many cases where price briefly leaves a range only to return back inside it. I am combining this daily-timeframe signal with my broader market context, and I am checking correlations with the dollar index and risk sentiment to confirm whether the move has fundamental support. I am also planning my risk management in advance, because I know that trading after a long flat can bring increased volatility, and I want to protect my capital if sudden reversals occur. I am convinced that the next few sessions will be decisive for defining the medium-term direction, and I am ready to adapt my strategy depending on whether price consolidates below 0.7829 or quickly recovers above this former support.
I am analyzing the USD/CHF pair on the H1 timeframe and I am noting that the price is currently trading below the daily opening level of 0.7890 and also below the daily Pivot at 0.7915, and I interpret this positioning as an early sign that bearish pressure remains dominant and that buyers are not yet confident enough to regain control of the intraday structure. I am carefully observing that the main technical indicators are pointing south and I am seeing that the price remains firmly below the MA72 trend line, and I know from experience that this moving average often acts as a dynamic resistance zone where volume unloading usually occurs, which reinforces my belief that sellers are actively distributing positions rather than preparing for a sustainable recovery. I am paying close attention to the key psychological level of 0.7800 and I am considering it a crucial fork in the session, because I understand that price behavior around this zone will likely determine whether the market chooses a corrective rebound or continues its bearish expansion. I am preparing scenarios in which, if the price manages to stay above 0.7800, I may see a technical rebound toward 0.7825 and possibly toward 0.7860, and I am aware that these levels could attract short-term buyers or profit-taking sellers who may temporarily slow the decline. I am also planning for the alternative scenario in which the price breaks and consolidates below 0.7800, because I believe that in this case the bearish momentum could accelerate and push the pair toward 0.7788 and potentially toward the deeper support near 0.7750, where stronger demand may finally appear. I am reinforcing my bearish bias by noting that the pair is trading below the monthly Pivot at 0.7960, below the weekly Pivot at 0.8009, and below the daily Pivot, and I consider this alignment of pivot levels a strong confirmation of southern sentiment across multiple timeframes. I am structuring my intraday plan around the clearly defined technical map, and I am treating 0.7825 as the first resistance and 0.7788 as the first support, because I believe these levels will act as the nearest reaction zones for scalpers and short-term traders. I am maintaining discipline and patience because I know that volatility around pivot levels can produce false breakouts and sharp pullbacks, and I am ready to adjust my bias quickly if the market shows signs of absorption or reversal. I am confident that as long as the price remains below the daily opening and below the MA72, the overall intraday structure favors sellers, and I am positioning myself mentally to trade in harmony with this prevailing bearish flow while carefully managing risk in case the market surprises me.
