FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I see the recent decline of the dollar as a continuation of political uncertainty that I believe is being driven by renewed tension from the US president, and I interpret the rumors about tariffs and territorial ambitions as a serious psychological weight on the currency market. I notice how the early Monday spike in EUR/USD followed by a shallow pullback tells me that buyers are still firmly in control, and I interpret the hesitation around 1.1660 as a sign that sellers lack strength. I recognize the flat around 1.1680 on the four-hour chart as a classic accumulation zone, and I view the subsequent breakout above 1.17 as confirmation that the market accepted higher prices. I observe the daily structure shifting from bearish to bullish, and I interpret the broken southern trend as evidence that sellers have lost their strategic edge. I believe that if the market holds above 1.1820–1.1830 at the open, I can logically expect a continuation toward 1.1920 before meaningful resistance forms. I consider the sentiment ratio of 20 percent buyers to 80 percent sellers as an important contrarian signal, and I assume that large players may still try to squeeze the remaining shorts higher. I understand that such extreme positioning often precedes sharp reversals, and I remain cautious because I know that tipping points rarely announce themselves in advance. I analyze the weekly candlestick as a strong bullish impulse, and I expect inertia to carry the price toward the psychological 1.2000 area. I remember predicting a move to the 20th figure earlier, and I now feel that this target is no longer ambitious but realistic within the next trading month. I interpret the current zone between 1.1807 and 1.1868 as a sensitive distribution area, and I plan to watch carefully for reversal patterns near the channel top. I accept that a test of the moving average near 1.1671 could become a healthy correction, and I prepare myself for either a rebound or a deeper slide toward 1.1507 depending on how price reacts.

I frame the entire movement not as a yen story but as a pure dollar story, and I believe the intervention in USD/JPY only triggered a temporary revaluation of the greenback. I see the medium-term structure as constructive, and I trust the series of higher lows above 1.17 more than any single news headline. I read the steady climb supported by moving averages as a sign of institutional participation, and I do not interpret this breakout as emotional or chaotic. I maintain that holding above 1.172 keeps the bullish scenario intact, and I look toward 1.185 and higher if the dollar remains under pressure. I explain the euro inflows as defensive reallocations rather than genuine euro strength, and I understand that fear of the dollar can be as powerful as optimism about Europe. I expect a technical pause after such a rally, and I would welcome a pullback toward 1.178 or 1.176 as a chance to test real demand. I refuse to short impulsively because I know that trends punish emotional traders, and I prefer patience over prediction. I notice the absence of intervention signatures on the euro chart, and I conclude that the pair is moving naturally within global capital flows. I believe that if the yen story fades, the euro will return to being driven by rates and macro data, and I prepare to reassess when fundamentals shift. I accept that continued intervention anxiety could push EUR/USD even higher without fresh euro catalysts, and I remain flexible in my bias. I summarize my stance by saying I would rather trade pullbacks or stand aside than fight the prevailing structure, and I trust the trend until price proves me wrong.