FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

In Week 4 of the year, I analyze how central bank demand from China and Poland highlights that gold accumulation is no longer isolated but part of a broader strategic shift. In Week 4 of the year, I argue that geopolitics alone cannot explain the rally and that currency dynamics, especially the weakening US dollar, are playing the dominant role. In Week 4 of the year, I reflect that quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve increases liquidity and naturally pressures the dollar lower. In Week 4 of the year, I note that an expanding money supply historically boosts hard assets as investors seek protection from depreciation. In Week 4 of the year, I observe that gold, silver, and industrial metals are reacting more to dollar weakness than to fear headlines. In Week 4 of the year, I emphasize that the daily chart shows an equidistant ascending channel that defines the current bullish structure. In Week 4 of the year, I identify 4981 as the active trading zone that confirms price remains inside the channel. In Week 4 of the year, I highlight that the upper boundary near 5040–5050 becomes the natural magnet for buyers. In Week 4 of the year, I stress that momentum traders will continue to defend pullbacks while the channel holds. In Week 4 of the year, I transition to the H1 chart to confirm intraday alignment with the daily trend. In Week 4 of the year, I point out that Friday’s close near 4981 confirms bullish control into the weekend. In Week 4 of the year, I project that Monday’s session could extend the rally toward the channel ceiling. In Week 4 of the year, I clarify that selling is premature before price tests upper resistance. In Week 4 of the year, I warn that only a strong dollar-supporting weekend event could invalidate the bullish scenario. In Week 4 of the year, I analyze that price above the XamaSystem indicator and moving average confirms bullish territory. In Week 4 of the year, I explain that a corrective dip to the indicator could offer a tactical long entry. In Week 4 of the year, I caution that a break and consolidation below the indicator would open space toward the moving average. In Week 4 of the year, I note that only a clean break below the moving average would expose the 4569 zone. In Week 4 of the year, I underline that vertical growth increases the risk of sharp mean reversion. In Week 4 of the year, I conclude that trend strength remains dominant but fragility is quietly building beneath the surface.

In Week 4 of the year, I shift focus to profit-taking psychology around the 5000 psychological level. In Week 4 of the year, I argue that round numbers historically attract heavy option flows and aggressive position covering. In Week 4 of the year, I expect that reaching 5000 or slightly above could trigger rapid liquidation by late buyers. In Week 4 of the year, I state that even a strong correction would likely fail to destroy the long-term bullish structure. In Week 4 of the year, I admit that gold is visibly overextended and that stop clusters are dangerously concentrated. In Week 4 of the year, I warn that metals trading has become unusually risky due to expanded volatility. In Week 4 of the year, I outline 5100 as a possible exhaustion spike that could ignite a sell-off. In Week 4 of the year, I define the 5000–5070 zone as my preferred distribution area where momentum may fade. In Week 4 of the year, I compare two scenarios, either a fake breakout with resistance formation or a sharp straight correction. In Week 4 of the year, I set 4800 as the first logical downside target in a corrective phase. In Week 4 of the year, I extend that target to 4670 if panic accelerates. In Week 4 of the year, I reflect on missing the January 16 long near 4540 and accept the discipline lesson. In Week 4 of the year, I celebrate that silver trades near 100 allowed partial compensation for missing gold. In Week 4 of the year, I speculate that failure to hit 5000 could invite a long squeeze from Asian markets toward 4830. In Week 4 of the year, I connect this risk to political uncertainty around potential US-Iran escalation that may never materialize. In Week 4 of the year, I integrate COT data showing weakening investor sentiment and declining net long exposure. In Week 4 of the year, I stress that reduced speculative length often precedes medium-term corrections. In Week 4 of the year, I recommend waiting for the next weekly report before confirming a structural reversal. In Week 4 of the year, I summarize that the trend remains bullish but dangerously crowded. In Week 4 of the year, I conclude that discipline near resistance will matter more than chasing headlines or emotions.