FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Today is February 1, 2026, and I am watching Bitcoin move through a very difficult day. The price has dropped quickly over the last few hours. I see that many traders are feeling nervous right now. The market is trying to find a place to stop falling. It is a quiet Sunday but the price moves are very sharp. I am keeping a steady eye on the numbers as they change. Buyers are staying away for now. I believe the next few hours will be very important for the trend. I am analyzing the market on the H4 timeframe, which is currently the most critical lens for understanding this sudden shift. As of this moment, the current market price for Bitcoin is sitting at approximately 82,740 USD. This follows a high-volatility weekend where we saw a recent high of 88,320 USD on Thursday, only for the price to crater to a recent low of 80,800 USD yesterday. This move represents a significant decline in just a few days. The context of this move is a "liquidity flush." I see that heavy liquidations occurred as the price sliced through the 85,000 support. This was not just a technical failure; it was a cascade of forced selling that has left the H4 chart looking exhausted. I believe we are witnessing a complete reset of the bullish sentiment that characterized early January when everyone was eyeing the 100,000 milestone. I am tracking several major fundamental drivers that are currently weighing on the market. The primary concern for the week ahead is the fallout from the January Federal Reserve meeting where interest rates were held steady. Chair Jerome Powell described rates as being in a "neutral range," which has caused uncertainty about the timing of future cuts. Furthermore, I am monitoring reports of an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port. This event has spiked geopolitical risk, causing a "flight to safety" where investors are favoring gold, which is hitting record highs, over digital assets. Additionally, I am watching the US government fiscal situation. The short-lived shutdown that occurred this weekend has damaged confidence in dollar-denominated assets. I am also preparing for the US Non-Farm Payrolls report on February 6, which will be the next major volatility catalyst for the dollar and Bitcoin. Strategic Support and Resistance I have identified the following zones as the primary battlegrounds for price action on the H4 chart. Immediate Resistance sits at 85,210 USD. This level was previous support and now acts as a ceiling. I believe a H4 candle must close above this mark to stop the current bleeding. Major Resistance remains at 88,400 USD, which aligns with the recent swing high. Immediate Support is located at 80,800 USD. This is the weekend low and must hold to avoid a deeper correction. Major Support is found at 78,600 USD. If I see the price break this level, it would confirm a shift into a much larger bearish cycle toward the 70,000 range. Indicator Analysis and Candle Patterns My technical indicators are currently sounding an alarm on the H4 timeframe. I see the 20-period Simple Moving Average at 84,100 and the 50-period SMA at 86,500. The price is trading well below both, and I have just witnessed a bearish crossover on the H4 chart. The current candle pattern on the H4 is a "Long-Legged Doji" following a "Bearish Marubozu," indicating that while the selling has slowed, there is still extreme indecision. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is providing a grim outlook. I see the MACD line has plunged into negative territory at -850, and the histogram is expanding downward. There is no sign of a "Bullish Divergence" yet. I am also looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently at 34. This is near the "oversold" boundary, but in a trending move, it can stay low for days. My strategy is to avoid any "knife-catching" until the MACD histogram begins to shorten and turn a lighter shade of red. Fibonacci Tuning for Entry and Exit I have applied the Fibonacci retracement tool to the macro swing from the late 2025 low to the January 2026 high to find where the "real" floor might be. Proposed Entry Zone I am identifying a potential "Value Zone" at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which sits at 81,150 USD. I am looking to enter a long position if I see a "Hammer" or "Bullish Engulfing" candle form on the H4 specifically at this level. This would allow for a tight stop-loss just below the 79,500 level. Targeted Exit Points If a relief bounce begins from my proposed entry, I have set the following Fibonacci-based exits. Take Profit 1 is at 85,120 USD, which represents the 0.618 retracement and aligns with the current resistance. I will take 50 percent of the profit here. Take Profit 2 is at 88,200 USD, which is the 0.382 neutral zone. This is where I would close the remainder of the position, as the 50-period SMA will likely act as a heavy ceiling there. Sentiment and Market Correlation I observe that the current market sentiment has shifted from "Greed" to "Fear" within a single week. The fear and greed index is currently reading 38. Interestingly, the correlation between Bitcoin and Gold has decoupled. While Gold is making new apex highs, Bitcoin is struggling with headwinds. This tells me that speculators are looking for traditional safety rather than digital alternatives during this geopolitical crisis. I am also seeing massive outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, with nearly 985 million USD leaving the funds in the last three days. This tells me that institutional conviction is being tested. If ETF flows do not turn positive in the next 48 hours, the pressure on the 80,000 support will become unbearable. Trading Strategy Conclusion I am currently maintaining a "defensive" trading strategy. I find that the path of least resistance is downward until the 80,800 support is tested and held with a strong bounce. I will not be an aggressive buyer until the H4 MACD shows a clear upward curve or the price manages to print a H4 candle close above the 20-period SMA at 84,100. For now, I believe the best play is to stay patient and wait for the "exhaustion" phase of this sell-off to complete. The volatility is high, and the risk of a "flush out" to 78,000 remains a distinct possibility before any sustainable recovery begins.