FX.co ★ AUD/USD

I see the AUD/USD weekly structure as a story of transition from a long-held bearish channel into a broader corrective phase after a technically clean breakout above the descending boundary near 0.6800. I note how the pair advanced toward 0.7100 after the breakout, and I interpret the long upper shadow on the latest weekly candle as evidence that sellers are beginning to defend higher prices. I view this not as a trend reversal yet, but as the start of a meaningful corrective decline within a still-developing bullish recovery. I identify the first objective of this pullback as the filling of the northern gap, and I anticipate the second objective to be a retest of the former upper boundary of the old descending channel from above. I consider this retest technically important because I expect it to determine whether the breakout was genuine or false. I recognize that the broader sideways structure around 0.6780–0.6800 may provide support, and I do not yet expect a sustained breakdown beneath it. I acknowledge that the U.S. dollar remains broadly pressured, and I believe this limits the depth of any immediate decline. I continue to see 0.6670 as a strong historical support base where buyers previously accumulated significant volume, and I keep this level in mind as a longer-term foundation for the pair.

I shift to the H4 and intraday structure and see that the pair has already broken below a narrow ascending channel and slipped under the weekly marginal control zone near 0.6990. I observe how price action from the 0.7100 high initiated an aggressive corrective move that reached 0.6940 before stalling into the weekly close at 0.6964. I identify 0.6925 and 0.6904 as near-term Fibonacci expansion targets that sellers may attempt to reach if momentum continues. I remain cautious because I feel the setup looks deceptively clean, and I remember similar false signals on other pairs that reversed sharply on Mondays. I watch 0.6980 closely at the open, and I believe a stable hold below it would favor short positioning toward the 0.6890 accumulation zone. I place importance on stops above any sudden upward surge because I expect rebounds from this zone if selling exhausts. I still believe that only a firm break below 0.6800 and then 0.6700 would signal a deeper bearish phase, while any stabilization above these levels would keep the path open for another run toward 0.7090.