FX.co ★ USD/JPY

Hello traders, The USDJPY currency pair - W1 chart. The overall higher trend here is clearly bullish, both on this weekly chart and on the older monthly chart. The waves are built in an ascending order, the MACD indicator used is in the overbought zone. I still believe that the price will aim to retest the 2024 high, entering above the 161.86 level. However, this was not achieved, as a retracement downwards was given after slightly updating the 2025 high. The overall weakening of the US dollar that occurred in the second half of January also affected this pair, although the price resisted to the maximum. In general, the dollar feels better here compared to other major pairs. There were additional technical justifications for the price to make a downward correction, as a significant bearish divergence on the MACD indicator was observed on the smaller daily chart. I assumed that this divergence might not work, as there could have been more sellers accumulating to push the price above the maximum. However, the market softened and responded to the signal by showing some decline. Nevertheless, the relevance of growth remains in force. Overall, in relation to the major currency pairs, in my opinion, the US dollar is aimed at strengthening in the near future, especially here. It has certainly strengthened more than others in recent months among currency pairs and has hardly experienced any pullbacks. Apparently, this is related to the fact that the cheap Japanese currency is somehow more beneficial to Japan, and they intentionally weaken it. The 2024 high is not only the high of that year, but also the historical high for the entire history that can be seen on the terminal. Although it is said that Japan does not need to weaken its currency at all and they are preparing to resist this if the weakening trend continues. In short, I think it is worth considering upward work on shorter periods. The bullish convergence on the CCI is helpful.