FX.co ★ EUR/USD

I observe that the EUR/USD pair closed the trading week in negative territory, and I interpret this red weekly close as more dramatic than it initially appears because I see clear tension between bulls and bears throughout the sessions. I note that despite persistent pressure, I did not see the price confidently break below the 50 Fibonacci retracement level, and I specifically recognize that support at 1.1846 remained intact without any decisive breakdown. I emphasize that I barely saw even a single clean touch of that level, and I interpret this lack of downside follow-through as a signal that buyers are actively defending the structure. I believe this resilience suggests that market participants are seriously considering upward continuation rather than preparing for a deeper correction. I also assess the broader dollar context, and I currently view the dollar as fundamentally vulnerable, since I see limited catalysts for sustained strength and I expect continued softness to support EUR/USD. I plan to focus closely on upcoming U.S. statistical releases because I understand that such data often generates manipulation spikes, and I recognize that volatility around these events can temporarily distort direction before the real move unfolds. I would like to see a confident breakout and consolidation above 1.1889, and I would interpret sustained trading above that resistance as confirmation of bullish intent. I anticipate that once price stabilizes above that level, I could see an extension toward the 1.25 figure zone in the medium term, especially if dollar weakness persists. I also acknowledge the visible imbalance near 1.1898, and I understand that this zone could attract sellers aiming for a corrective decline. I remain aware that failure to hold above resistance could trigger short-term pullbacks, but I still lean toward growth as long as key support levels remain protected.

I see the current structure in EUR/USD as a clear battlefield where neither bulls nor bears have established decisive control, and I interpret the price action as a phase of compression before an impulsive breakout. I notice that professional trading volume around 1.1886 and 1.1834 is acting as a magnet for liquidity, and I believe these zones are where larger participants are accumulating or distributing positions. I observe that if price confidently breaks and consolidates above 1.1836, I will interpret that as confirmation that buyers are absorbing supply, and I will anticipate a continuation toward 1.1949, which I consider a logical target corresponding to a renewal of the recent local high. I also recognize that such a bullish breakout would likely trigger stop orders from short sellers, and I expect that fuel to accelerate momentum to the upside. I understand, however, that if price breaks below 1.1834 with strong volume and follow-through, I will view that as a decisive bearish signal, and I will project a decline toward 1.1781, which aligns with the previous local low and represents a technical liquidity objective. I acknowledge that volatility is increasing while directional conviction remains weak, and I interpret this as a classic environment where stop-hunting and false breakouts can dominate short-term movement. I deliberately choose not to focus on the news background because I believe current price behavior reflects positioning rather than fundamental catalysts. I analyze the MACD waves and I see that momentum still favors the bulls overall, and I interpret the structure as a broader bullish bias despite immediate pressure from sellers. I accept that bears are aggressively testing demand, but I still consider the underlying momentum constructive until clear structural support fails.